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Pharmaceutical Innovation, Mortality Reduction, and Economic Growth

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  • Frank R. Lichtenberg
Abstract
We perform an econometric investigation of the contribution of pharmaceutical innovation to mortality reduction and growth in lifetime per capita income. In both of the periods studied (1970-80 and 1980-91), there is a highly significant positive relationship across diseases between the increase in mean age at death (which is closely related to life expectancy) and rates of introduction of new, priority' (as defined by the FDA) drugs. The estimates imply that in the absence of pharmaceutical innovation, there would have been no increase and perhaps even a small decrease in mean age at death, and that new drugs have increased life expectancy, and lifetime income, by about 0.75-1.0% per annum. The drug innovation measures are also strongly positively related to the reduction in life-years lost in both periods. Some of the more conservative estimates imply that a one-time R&D expenditure of about $15 billion subsequently saves 1.6 million life-years per year, whose annual value is about $27 billion. All age groups benefited from the arrival of new drugs in at least one of the two periods. Controlling for growth in inpatient and ambulatory care utilization either has no effect on the drug coefficient or significantly increases it.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 1998. "Pharmaceutical Innovation, Mortality Reduction, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6569
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "R&D and Productivity Growth at the Industry Level: Is There Still a Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 213-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Lichtenberg, Frank R & Siegel, Donald, 1991. "The Impact of R&D Investment on Productivity--New Evidence Using Linked R&D-LRD Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(2), pages 203-229, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Lancia & Giovanni Prarolo, 2012. "A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 989-1018, July.
    2. Keith Blackburn & Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque, 2011. "Public Expenditures, Bureaucratic Corruption And Economic Development," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(3), pages 405-428, June.
    3. Peter Kotzian, 2004. "Pharmaceutical R&D in the Setting of Incomplete European Integration," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 175-195.
    4. Toole, Andrew A. & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2007. "Life Scientist Mobility from Academe to Industry: Does Academic Entrepreneurship Induce a Costly ?Brain Drain? on the Not-for-Profit Research Sector?," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. James W. Shaw & William C. Horrace & Ronald J. Vogel, 2002. "The Productivity of Pharmaceuticals in Improving Health: An Analysis of the OECD Health Data," HEW 0206001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 May 2003.
    6. Lee Branstetter & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matthew J. Higgins, 2016. "Regulation and welfare: evidence from paragraph IV generic entry in the pharmaceutical industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(4), pages 857-890, November.
    7. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2005. "The tortoise and the hare : economic growth in Britain and the Netherlands c.1500-1800," Working Papers 200524, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    8. Joshua Krieger & Danielle Li & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2022. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 636-679.
    9. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2007. "Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2006. "Health, Development, and the Demographic Transition," 2006 Meeting Papers 645, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2002. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy and the Process of Economic Development," IZA Discussion Papers 585, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Ramón Abel Castano & David Bardey & Hernán Jaramillo & Mónica Ortegón Andrés Vecino, 2007. "¿Tiene efectos negativos el TLC sobre los precios de los medicamentos y la salud de los colombianos?," Borradores de Investigación 4362, Universidad del Rosario.
    13. Dirk Czarnitzki & Katrin Hussinger & Cédric Schneider, 2011. "Commercializing academic research: the quality of faculty patenting," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 20(5), pages 1403-1437, October.
    14. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0217, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    15. Keith Blackburn & Rashmi Sarmah, 2008. "Corruption, development and demography," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 341-362, October.
    16. James W. Hughes & Michael J. Moore & Edward A. Snyder, 2002. ""Napsterizing" Pharmaceuticals: Access, Innovation, and Consumer Welfare," NBER Working Papers 9229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2005. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1653-1672, December.
    18. Hartwig, Jochen, 2010. "Is health capital formation good for long-term economic growth? - Panel Granger-causality evidence for OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 314-325, March.
    19. James W. Shaw & William C. Horrace & Ronald J. Vogel, 2005. "The Determinants of Life Expectancy: An Analysis of the OECD Health Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 768-783, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing

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