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Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round

Author

Listed:
  • Drusilla K. Brown

    (Tufts University)

  • Alan V. Deardorff

    (University of Michigan)

  • Robert M Stern

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract
We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94 on the major industrialized and developing countries/regions. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $73.0 billion. The developed countries overall have an estimated welfare gain of $53.8 billion, and the developing countries an estimated welfare increase of $19.2 billion. We have also simulated the effects of assumed 33 percent reductions in trade barriers in the ongoing Doha Development Round. There is an estimated increase in global welfare of $574.0 billion. There is a global welfare decline of $3.1 billion from agricultural liberalization due primarily to the assumed reductions in export subsidies. There are global welfare gains of $163.4 billion from reductions in manufactures tariffs and $413.7 billion from reductions in services barriers. All of the countries/regions covered in the Michigan Model show overall welfare increases, with the largest absolute gains going to the developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round," Working Papers 489, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:489
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    File URL: http://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers476-500/r489.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-286, May.
    2. Francois, Joseph & McDonald, Brad & Nordström, Håkan, 1996. "A User's Guide to Uruguay Round Assessments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Bernard M. Hoekman & Will Martin, 2002. "Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 113-140.
    4. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    5. Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
    6. J. Michael Finger & Julio J. Nogués, 2002. "The Unbalanced Uruguay Round Outcome: The New Areas in Future WTO Negotiations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 321-340, March.
    7. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:262-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    9. Bernard Hoekman, 2000. "The next round of services negotiations: identifying priorities and options," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jul), pages 31-52.
    10. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jul), pages 77-104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. John Whalley, 2004. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1223-1253, August.
    2. Karam, Fida & Decaluwe, Bernard, 2007. "Migration Impact on Moroccan Unemployment: a Static Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 331599, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Koopmann Georg & Straubhaar Thomas, 2009. "Zur Internationalisierung des Dienstleistungssektors," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 60(2), pages 81-102, August.
    4. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    5. Frank Ackerman, "undated". "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections," GDAE Working Papers 05-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    6. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Ben Goodrich, 2003. "More Pain, More Gain: Politics and Economics of Eliminating Tariffs," Policy Briefs PB03-08, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Hess, Sebastian & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von & Sperlich, Stefan, 2010. "Numbers for Pascal: explaining differences in the estimated benefits of the Doha Development Agenda," DARE Discussion Papers 1001, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    8. Nakgyoon Choi, 2010. "General Equilibrium Analysis of DDA Trade Liberalization : Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Trade Working Papers 23109, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    9. Frank Ackerman, 2006. "Assessing the Effects of Trade Liberalisation: A Critical Examination," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 3, July.
    10. repec:got:cegedp:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ajitava Raychaudhuri & Prabir De, 2007. "Assessing Barriers to Trade in Education Services in Developing Asia - Pacific Countries:An Empirical Exercise," Working Papers 3407, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    12. Sebastian Hess & Stephan Von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2008. "A Meta‐Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 804-840, June.
    13. Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2007. "Assessing general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha round outcomes using meta-analysis," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 67, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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