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Coca Politics: Electoral Accountability and Tough-on-Crime Policies in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Gelvez, Juan David

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract
Governments across the Global South widely rely on tough-on-crime policies to control illicit drug production. Advocates argue these policies are necessary to control cartels; detractors claim they undermine human rights and ultimately yield minimal results in reducing drug production. How do these policies affect the government’s support? Who supports harsh crime policies? This paper addresses these puzzles by examining the political benefits of coca eradication in Colombia. I show that despite the electoral cost in coca-growing areas, politicians who rely on harsh eradication policies are more likely to benefit electorally, as their core supporters perceive aerial spraying as an effective strategy to combat drug production. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design and a nationally representative survey, I show that right-wing politicians benefited politically from its aerial spraying eradication efforts, despite the punishment of voters living in coca-growing regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gelvez, Juan David, 2024. "Coca Politics: Electoral Accountability and Tough-on-Crime Policies in Colombia," OSF Preprints yn9rz, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:yn9rz
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/yn9rz
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gelvez, Juan D. & Angarita Serrano, Matilde, 2024. "Incentives war: the consequences of announcing a substitution policy on coca cultivation in Colombia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122160, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    3. Camacho, Adriana & Mejía, Daniel, 2017. "The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 147-160.
    4. Maja Kutlaca & Martijn van Zomeren & Kai Epstude, 2020. "Friends or foes? How activists and non-activists perceive and evaluate each other," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, April.
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    6. Kenneth E. Fernandez & Michele Kuenzi, 2010. "Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58, pages 450-471, June.
    7. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    8. Mónica Pachón & Fabio Sánchez, 2014. "Base de datos sobre resultados electorales CEDE, 1958 – 2011," Documentos CEDE 12058, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Ofosu, George Kwaku, 2019. "Do Fairer Elections Increase the Responsiveness of Politicians?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 963-979, November.
    10. repec:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:04:p:963-979_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Horacio Larreguy & John Marshall & James M SnyderJr., 2020. "Publicising Malfeasance: When the Local Media Structure Facilitates Electoral Accountability in Mexico," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(631), pages 2291-2327.
    12. Alejandra Vélez, María & Lobo, Iván, 2019. "Challenges of organised community resistance in the context of illicit economies and drug war policies: insights from Colombia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100325, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Imai, Kosuke & Kim, In Song, 2021. "On the Use of Two-Way Fixed Effects Regression Models for Causal Inference with Panel Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 405-415, July.
    14. Kenneth E. Fernandez & Michele Kuenzi, 2010. "Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58(3), pages 450-471, June.
    15. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Leopoldo Fergusson & James Robinson & Dario Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2020. "The Perils of High-Powered Incentives: Evidence from Colombia's False Positives," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 1-43, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gelvez, Juan David & Angulo, Juan Carlos, 2024. "Public Attitudes Toward Forced Eradication: Protest, Gender, and Politics in Colombia," OSF Preprints 6ys2g, Center for Open Science.

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