[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/elsaab/136-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Germany: State Dependence Before and After the Hartz Reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Königs

    (OECD)

Abstract
In this paper, we study the dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt in Germany using annual survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the years 1995-2011. Rates of benefit receipt were stable in Germany at around 8% in the 1990s but started rising in 2001 to peak at over 12% in 2006. We show that this increase in the receipt rate can be attributed to lower exit rates from benefit receipt since 2001. In the econometric part of the paper, we study state dependence in social assistance benefit receipt, i.e. the question to what extent benefit receipt today predicts the probability of future benefit receipt. We estimate a series of dynamic random-effects probit models that control for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of the initial conditions and indeed find considerable evidence of state dependence. Our estimates suggest that benefit receipt one year ago raises the likelihood of benefit receipt today by a factor of 3, which corresponds to an average partial effect of about 14 percentage points. The level of state dependence differs between subsamples and is larger in absolute terms for women, Eastern German residents, and migrants, for whom receipt rates are higher. Studying variations over time, we find a rise in the level of state dependence after the 2005 Hartz reforms in Eastern Germany. We attribute this effect to a drop in average predicted entry rates into benefit receipt without a corresponding fall in predicted benefit persistence rates. We do not identify any comparable change in structural dependence for Germany as a whole or other subsamples we look at. Since a reform that contributes to keeping individuals off benefits while doing little to raise exit rates would increase state dependence but might nonetheless be considered as beneficial, our findings should not be understood as a verdict on the success or failure of the Hartz reforms. Cet article étudie la dynamique des prestations d’assistance sociale reçues en Allemagne, sur la période 1995-2011, à partir des données annuelles du Panel socio-économique allemand (SOEP). Dans les années 90, le taux des prestations d’assistance sociale en Allemagne est resté stable autour de 8 % puis a commencé à augmenter à partir de 2001 pour dépasser 12% en 2006. Cette augmentation s’explique principalement par des taux de sortie plus faible du système de prestations à partir de 2001. La partie de l’article consacrée à l’analyse économétrique étudie la probabilité qu’une personne bénéficie dans l’avenir de prestations en fonction de recevoir des prestations aujourd’hui. Une série de modèles probit dynamique à effets aléatoires est utilisée en contrôlant l'hétérogénéité non observée et l'endogénéité des conditions initiales. Les résultats étayent l’hypothèse d’une dépendance entre les états . Les estimations suggèrent que le fait d’avoir reçu une prestation sociale un an auparavant augmente par un facteur de 3 la probabilité de bénéficier d’une prestation un an après, ce qui correspond en moyenne à un effet partiel de 14 points de pourcentage. Le niveau de dépendance varie selon les différents sous-échantillons : en termes absolus, la dépendance est plus importante chez les femmes, les résidents de l’Allemagne de l’Est et les immigrants, pour lesquels le taux de réception des prestations est plus élevé. L’analyse temporelle des variations de la dépendance entre les états montre une augmentation de celle-ci en Allemagne de l’Est après les réformes Hartz de 2005. Ce phénomène peut être attribué à une diminution du taux d’entrée prédit par le modèle, sans qu’elle s’accompagne d’une diminution des taux attendus de persistance des prestations. On ne trouve aucun changement comparable de la structure de la dépendance pour l’ensemble de l’Allemagne ou d’autres sous-échantillons. En principe, toute réforme qui rend moins probable la réception de prestations sociales tout en ne favorisant pas la sortie du système fait augmenter le taux de dépendance mais pourrait cependant être considérée comme bénéfique. Dans ce sens, nos résultats ne sont pas à interpréter comme un jugement positif ou négatif sur les réformes Hartz.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Königs, 2013. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Germany: State Dependence Before and After the Hartz Reforms," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:136-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5k3xwtg6zknq-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/5k3xwtg6zknq-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/5k3xwtg6zknq-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Andrén & Daniela Andrén, 2013. "Never give up? The persistence of welfare participation in Sweden," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    3. Regina T. Riphahn & Monika Sander & Christoph Wunder, 2013. "The welfare use of immigrants and natives in Germany: the case of Turkish immigrants," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 70-82, March.
    4. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2014. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Britain," Research in Labor Economics, in: Safety Nets and Benefit Dependence, volume 39, pages 41-79, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Anders Skrondal & Andrew Pickles, 2004. "GLLAMM Manual," U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series 1160, Berkeley Electronic Press.
    6. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    7. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2008. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 3765, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Mark Stewart, 2006. "Maximum simulated likelihood estimation of random-effects dynamic probit models with autocorrelated errors," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(2), pages 256-272, June.
    9. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
    10. Wiji Arulampalam & Mark B. Stewart, 2009. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 659-681, October.
    11. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    12. Martin Biewen, 2009. "Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1095-1116.
    13. Blank, Rebecca M & Ruggles, Patricia, 1994. "Short-Term Recidivism among Public-Assistance Recipients," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 49-53, May.
    14. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2011. "Immigrant–Native Differences in Welfare Participation: The Role of Entry and Exit Rates," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 412-442, July.
    15. Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia & Skrondal, Anders & Pickles, Andrew, 2005. "Maximum likelihood estimation of limited and discrete dependent variable models with nested random effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 301-323, October.
    16. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zhang, Xuelin, 2006. "State Dependence in Canadian Welfare Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 2266, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Muhleisen, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1994. "A panel analysis of job changes and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 793-801, April.
    18. Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia & Skrondal, Anders, 2013. "Avoiding biased versions of Wooldridge’s simple solution to the initial conditions problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 346-349.
    19. Alpaslan Akay, 2012. "Finite‐sample comparison of alternative methods for estimating dynamic panel data models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1189-1204, November.
    20. Ross Finnie & Ian Irvine, 2008. "The Welfare Enigma: Explaining the Dramatic Decline in Canadians' Use of Social Assistance, 1993-2005," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 267, June.
    21. Gong, Xiaodong, 2004. "Transition Patterns for the Welfare Reliance of Low Income Mothers in Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 1047, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kerstin Bruckmeier & Katrin Hohmeyer & Stefan Schwarz, 2018. "Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 52(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Alexander Spermann, 2015. "How to fight long-term unemployment: lessons from Germany," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Coban, Mustafa, 2017. "Wage mobility, wage inequality, and tasks: Empirical evidence from Germany, 1984-2014," Discussion Paper Series 139, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    4. Olga Grigoriev & Gabriele Doblhammer, 2022. "Does the Mortality of Individuals with Severe Disabilities Contribute to the Persistent East–West Mortality Gap Among German Men?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(2), pages 247-271, May.
    5. Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Hohmeyer, Katrin & Schwarz, Stefan, 2018. "Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 52(1), pages 1-16.
    6. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
    7. H. Xavier Jara & Katrin Gasior & Mattia Makovec, 2020. "Work Incentives at the Extensive and Intensive Margin in Europe: The Role of Taxes, Benefits and Population Characteristics," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 705-778, November.
    8. Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Hohmeyer, Katrin & Schwarz, Stefan, 2018. "Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 52(1), pages .16(1-21).
    9. Spermann, Alexander, 2014. "Zehn Jahre Hartz IV – Was hilft Langzeitarbeitslosen wirklich?," IZA Standpunkte 76, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:52:i:1:p:art.16 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Achatz, Juliane & Schels, Brigitte, 2020. "Übergang von der Schule ins Erwerbsleben: Ein Arbeitslosengeld-II-Bezug muss nicht von Dauer sein (School-to-work transition: Basic income support is not necessarily permanent)," IAB-Kurzbericht 202014, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Sinem H. Ayhan & Selin Pelek, 2020. "State Dependence in Welfare Benefits in a Non‐Welfare Context," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 711-735, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    2. Herwig Immervoll & Stephen P. Jenkins & Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'?: Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.
    3. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
    4. Sinem H. Ayhan & Selin Pelek, 2020. "State Dependence in Welfare Benefits in a Non‐Welfare Context," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 711-735, September.
    5. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2017. "DPB: Dynamic Panel Binary Data Models in gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 79(i08).
    6. Joaquín Prieto, 2021. "Poverty traps and affluence shields: Modelling the persistence of income position in Chile," Working Papers 576, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    7. Schnitzlein, Daniel D. & Stephani, Jens, 2016. "Locus of Control and low-wage mobility," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 164-177.
    8. Drescher, Katharina & Janzen, Benedikt, 2021. "Determinants, persistence, and dynamics of energy poverty: An empirical assessment using German household survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Cuesta, Maite Blázquez & Budría, Santiago, 2017. "Unemployment persistence: How important are non-cognitive skills?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-37.
    10. Prieto Suarez, Joaquin, 2021. "Poverty traps and affluence shields: modelling the persistence of income position in Chile," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110719, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Wunder, Christoph & Riphahn, Regina, 2013. "Welfare transitions before and after reforms of the German welfare system," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79715, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Alexander Mosthaf & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2014. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: Which one provides better prospects for women?," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu, 2016. "Persistence of Individual Unemployment in Indonesia: Dynamic Probit Analysis from Panel SUSENAS 2008-2010," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1239-1246.
    14. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó, 2009. "Why are child poverty rates so persistently high in Spain?," Working Papers 123, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    15. Erdsiek, Daniel, 2017. "Dynamics of overqualification: Evidence from the early career of graduates," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Lionel WILNER, 2019. "The Dynamics of Individual Happiness," Working Papers 2019-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Picchio, Matteo & van Ours, Jan C., 2013. "Retaining through training even for older workers," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-48.
    18. Andreas Knabe & Alexander Plum, 2013. "Low-wage Jobs — Springboard to High-paid Ones?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 27(3), pages 310-330, September.
    19. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," Working Papers 421, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    20. Enrico Fabrizi & Chiara Mussida, 2020. "Assessing poverty persistence in households with children," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(4), pages 551-569, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:136-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eloecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.