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Fertile Futures: Scenario Analysis on the Interconnected Dynamics of Fertiliser and Agricultural Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Adenäuer
  • Edith Laget
  • Merritt Cluff
Abstract
Fertilisers are crucial components of food systems, with impacts beyond agricultural markets. This study utilises the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to examine the intricate interplay between fertiliser markets, policies, and their repercussions on agricultural markets, food security, and environmental sustainability over the medium term. Two distinct scenario analyses reveal significant insights. The first scenario shows that while short-term disruptions in fertiliser supply can be mitigated by existing stocks, prolonged deficits will increase global food prices by up to 6%, posing long-term threats to agriculture. In the second scenario, the removal of fertiliser subsidies in India leads to reduced domestic use, resulting in decreased agricultural production and exports coupled with increased imports. Although this will cause a modest 0.8% increase in global food prices, it will substantially cut agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, highlighting the pivotal role of domestic policies in attaining global environmental sustainability goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Adenäuer & Edith Laget & Merritt Cluff, 2024. "Fertile Futures: Scenario Analysis on the Interconnected Dynamics of Fertiliser and Agricultural Markets," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 207, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:207-en
    DOI: 10.1787/b1606a57-en
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural support; Food security; Greenhouse Gas (GHG); Partial equilibrium modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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