[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp10342.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor-Market Scars When Youth Unemployment Is Extremely High: Evidence from Macedonia

Author

Listed:
  • Petreski, Marjan

    (University American College Skopje)

  • Mojsoska-Blazevski, Nikica

    (University American College Skopje)

  • Bergolo, Marcelo

    (IECON, Universidad de la República)

Abstract
The objective of this study is to assess how the duration of the unemployment spell of Macedonia youth affects later employment (the employment 'scarring' effect) and wage outcomes (the wage 'scarring' effect). To that end, we first devise a model in which the unemployment spell is determined by individual and household characteristics and work attitudes and preferences. Discrete-time duration method is used to estimate this model. Then, we rely on a standard employment and Mincer earnings functions. We repeatedly impute missing wages to address the selection on observables, and use the regional unemployment rate when individual finished school as an instrument to mitigate the selection on unobservables. The School to Work Transition Survey 2012 is used. Results robustly suggest a presence of employment scar as those young persons who stay unemployed over a longer period of time were found to have lower chances to find a job afterwards. On the other hand, the study does not provide evidence for the existence of the wage scar.

Suggested Citation

  • Petreski, Marjan & Mojsoska-Blazevski, Nikica & Bergolo, Marcelo, 2016. "Labor-Market Scars When Youth Unemployment Is Extremely High: Evidence from Macedonia," IZA Discussion Papers 10342, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp10342.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2002:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    3. Francine Blau & Lawrence Kahn & Albert Liu & Kerry Papps, 2013. "The transmission of women’s fertility, human capital, and work orientation across immigrant generations," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 405-435, April.
    4. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? A Cross-Country Analysis of Gender Gaps," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 621-654, October.
    6. Claudio Lupi & Patrizia Ordine, 2002. "Unemployment scarring in high unemployment regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
    7. Paul Ryan, 2001. "The School-to-Work Transition: A Cross-National Perspective: Corrigendum," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 767-767, September.
    8. Kollman, Robert, 1994. "The duration of unemployment as a signal," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 373-377.
    9. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2009. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 909-938, September.
    10. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    11. Fares, Jean & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2007. "Youth unemployment, labor market transitions, and scarring : evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2001-04," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4183, The World Bank.
    12. Daniel H. Cooper, 2014. "The effect of unemployment duration on future earnings and other outcomes," Working Papers 13-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2012. "Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 646-675, October.
    14. Alessandra Fogli & Raquel Fernandez, 2009. "Culture: An Empirical Investigation of Beliefs, Work, and Fertility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 146-177, January.
    15. Derek Neal, 2004. "The Measured Black-White Wage Gap among Women Is Too Small," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 1-28, February.
    16. Nilsen, Øivind Anti & Reiso, Katrine Holm, 2011. "Scarring Effects of Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 6198, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Marjan Petreski & Nikica Blazevski & Blagica Petreski, 2014. "Gender Wage Gap when Women are Highly Inactive: Evidence from Repeated Imputations with Macedonian Data," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 393-411, December.
    18. Nekby, Lena & Rödin, Magnus, 2010. "Acculturation identity and employment among second and middle generation immigrants," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-50, February.
    19. Paul Ryan, 2001. "The School-to-Work Transition: A Cross-National Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 34-92, March.
    20. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 626-653, November.
    21. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    22. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    23. Schmillen, Achim & Umkehrer, Matthias, 2013. "The scars of youth : effects of early-career unemployment on future unemployment experience," IAB-Discussion Paper 201306, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    24. Leung, Siu Fai & Yu, Shihti, 1996. "On the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 197-229.
    25. Gregory, Mary & Jukes, Robert, 2001. "Unemployment and Subsequent Earnings: Estimating Scarring among British Men 1984-94," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 607-625, November.
    26. Gasparini Leonardo & Leonardo Tornaroli, 2009. "Labor Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Patterns and Trends from Household Survey Microdata," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, September.
    27. Bengt Muthén & Katherine Masyn, 2005. "Discrete-Time Survival Mixture Analysis," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 30(1), pages 27-58, March.
    28. Josef C Brada & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2014. "Introduction: Young People and the Labor Market: Key Determinants and New Evidence," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(4), pages 556-566, December.
    29. Corinna Ghirelli, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment for low educated youth: evidence and policy lessons from Belgium," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, December.
    30. Ben Lockwood, 1991. "Information Externalities in the Labour Market and the Duration of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 733-753.
    31. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sènakpon Fidèle A. Dedehouanou & Luca Tiberti & Hilaire G. Houeninvo & Djohodo Inès Monwanou, 2019. "Working while studying: Employment premium or penalty for youth in Benin?," Working Papers PMMA 2019-03, PEP-PMMA.
    2. Dimitar NIKOLOSKI & Marjan ANGELESKI & Slavica ROCHESKA, 2018. "Determinants of earnings in Macedonia: assessing the difference between low-paid and highly-paid employees," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 9, pages 111-131, June.
    3. Bundervoet, Tom & Dávalos, Maria E. & Garcia, Natalia, 2022. "The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on households in developing countries: An overview based on a harmonized dataset of high-frequency surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    5. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 321-348, June.
    6. Nikica Mojsoska-Blazevski & Marjan Petreski & Marjan I Bojadziev, 2017. "Youth survival in the labour market: Employment scarring in three transition economies," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 28(2), pages 312-331, June.
    7. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2020. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers hal-03008144, HAL.
    8. Despina Tumanoska, 2019. "The Validity of Okun¡¯s Law in North Macedonia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 160-168, June.
    9. Blagica Petreski & Despina Tumanoska & Tereza KÐ¾Ñ ovska & Jorge Davalos & Ivan Vchkov, 2019. "Analysis of youth underemployment in North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia," Finance Think Policy Studies 2019-03/22, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    10. Sènakpon Fidèle Ange Dedehouanou & Luca Tiberti & Gbodja Hilaire Houeninvo & Djohodo Inès Monwanou, 2022. "Working while studying: Employment premium or penalty for youth?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 415-441, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikica Mojsoska-Blazevski & Marjan Petreski & Marjan I Bojadziev, 2017. "Youth survival in the labour market: Employment scarring in three transition economies," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 28(2), pages 312-331, June.
    2. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2020. "Scars of youth non-employment and labour market conditions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1312, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2023. "Scars of Youth Non-employment and Labour Market Conditions," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 475-499, July.
    5. Möller Joachim & Umkehrer Matthias, 2015. "Are there Long-Term Earnings Scars from Youth Unemployment in Germany?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(4-5), pages 474-498, August.
    6. Seonho Shin, 2022. "To work or not? Wages or subsidies?: Copula-based evidence of subsidized refugees’ negative selection into employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 2209-2252, October.
    7. Marjan Petreski & Nikica Blazevski & Blagica Petreski, 2014. "Gender Wage Gap when Women are Highly Inactive: Evidence from Repeated Imputations with Macedonian Data," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 393-411, December.
    8. Mattia Filomena & Isabella Giorgetti & Matteo Picchio, 2022. "Off To A Bad Start: Youth Nonemployment And Labor Market Outcomes Later In Life," Working Papers 466, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    9. Matthias Umkehrer, 2019. "The impact of declining youth employment stability on future wages," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 619-650, February.
    10. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2015. "Substitution between Individual and Source Country Characteristics: Social Capital, Culture, and US Labor Market Outcomes among Immigrant Women," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 439-482.
    11. Umkehrer, Matthias, 2015. "The impact of changing youth employment patterns on future wages," IAB-Discussion Paper 201531, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Corinna GHIRELLI, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment in a rigid labour market," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Corinna Ghirelli, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment for low educated youth: evidence and policy lessons from Belgium," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, December.
    14. Luis Beccaria & Roxana Maurizio & Martin Trombetta & Gustavo Vázquez, 2016. "Una evaluación del efecto scarring en Argentina," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 77, August.
    15. Hasan Tekgüç & Değer Eryar & Dilek Cindoğlu, 2017. "Women’s Tertiary Education Masks the Gender Wage Gap in Turkey," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 360-386, September.
    16. Schmillen, Achim & Umkehrer, Matthias, 2013. "The scars of youth : effects of early-career unemployment on future unemployment experience," IAB-Discussion Paper 201306, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2013. "Scarring effects of remaining unemployed for long-term unemployed school-leavers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(4), pages 951-980, October.
    18. Steffen Müller & Renate Neubaeumer, 2018. "Size of training firms – the role of firms, luck, and ability in young workers’ careers," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(5), pages 658-673, August.
    19. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? A Cross-Country Analysis of Gender Gaps," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 621-654, October.
    20. Niedergesäss, Markus, 2012. "Duration dependence, lagged duration dependence, and occurrence dependence in individual employment histories," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 26, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    extremely high unemployment; wage scarring; employment scarring; Macedonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.