[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ivi/wpasec/2004-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is The Market Over-Optimistic About The Prospects Of Firms That Issue Equity? Evidence For The Spanish Market

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Gómez Sala

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • María Jesús Pastor

    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract
Previous evidence has documented that equity issuers underperform in the long-run. One possible explanation is that investors have overoptimistic expectations regarding future earnings and the underperformance occurs as these expectations are corrected over time. Our central focus is to test this hypothesis for Spanish rights issuing firms, for that, firstly we examine analysts? predictions about future earnings of these companies. We observe that forecasts are unusually favourable and, moreover, the post-offering underperformance is most pronounced when analyst predictions have higher optimistic bias. Secondly, we study the market response to issuing firms? earnings announcements in the post-offering period observing a significant negative reaction. So the evidence in this paper is consistent with the excessive optimism hypothesis about issuing firms. Evidencia previa ha documentado que las empresas que amplían capital experimentanrentabilidades anormales negativas en el largo plazo. Una posible explicación es que losinversores tienen expectativas excesivamente optimistas sobre los beneficios futuros de estascompañías y la evolución observada se debe a la corrección gradual de este exceso deoptimismo. El principal objeto de este trabajo es contrastar esta hipótesis para las emisionescon derechos en el mercado español. Para ello, en primer lugar se examinan los pronósticos delos analistas sobre los beneficios futuros de las empresas emisoras. Se observa que laspredicciones para estas compañías son inusualmente favorables y, además, la peor evolución alargo plazo es más pronunciada cuando las predicciones son más optimistas. En segundolugar, se estudia la reacción del mercado a los anuncios de beneficios de las compañíasemisoras los años siguientes a la oferta, observando una reacción significativamente negativa.Por tanto, la evidencia aportada en este trabajo es consistente con la hipótesis de expectativasexcesivamente optimistas sobre las empresas que deciden ampliar capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Gómez Sala & María Jesús Pastor, 2004. "Is The Market Over-Optimistic About The Prospects Of Firms That Issue Equity? Evidence For The Spanish Market," Working Papers. Serie EC 2004-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2004-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2004-06.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    2. Jun Cai, 1998. "The long-run performance following Japanese rights issues," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 419-434.
    3. Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2000. "Do firms mislead investors by overstating earnings before seasoned equity offerings?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 339-371, June.
    4. Kang, Jun-Koo & Kim, Yong-Cheol & Stulz, Rene M, 1999. "The Underreaction Hypothesis and the New Issue Puzzle: Evidence from Japan," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 519-534.
    5. Patricia M. Dechow & Amy P. Hutton & Richard G. Sloan, 2000. "The Relation between Analysts' Forecasts of Long†Term Earnings Growth and Stock Price Performance Following Equity Offerings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, March.
    6. Brous, Peter A. & Datar, Vinay & Kini, Omseh, 2001. "Is the Market Optimistic about the Future Earnings of Seasoned Equity Offering Firms?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 141-168, June.
    7. Lee, Inmoo, 1997. "Do Firms Knowingly Sell Overvalued Equity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1439-1466, September.
    8. Kothari, S. P. & Warner, Jerold B., 1997. "Measuring long-horizon security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 301-339, March.
    9. Robyn McLaughlin & Assem Safieddine & Gopala K. Vasudevan, 1996. "The Operating Performance of Seasoned Equity Issuers: Free Cash Flow and Post-Issue Performance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 25(4), Winter.
    10. Siew Hong Teoh & T. J. Wong, 2002. "Why New Issues and High-Accrual Firms Underperform: The Role of Analysts' Credulity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 869-900.
    11. Corrado, Charles J., 1989. "A nonparametric test for abnormal security-price performance in event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395, August.
    12. Denis, David J. & Sarin, Atulya, 2001. "Is the Market Surprised by Poor Earnings Realizations following Seasoned Equity Offerings?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 169-193, June.
    13. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
    14. O'brien, Patricia C., 1988. "Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-83, January.
    15. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    16. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2139-2159 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. John D. Lyon & Brad M. Barber & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1999. "Improved Methods for Tests of Long‐Run Abnormal Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, February.
    19. McNichols, M & O'Brien, PC, 1997. "Self-selection and analyst coverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 167-199.
    20. Brown, Lawrence D & Rozeff, Michael S, 1978. "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-16, March.
    21. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2000. "Long-Term Performance of Seasoned Equity Offerings: Benchmark Errors and Biases in Expectations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(3), Fall.
    22. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. "Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-529, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    2. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    3. Pastor-Llorca, Maria Jesus & Martin-Ugedo, Juan Francisco, 2004. "Long-run performance of Spanish seasoned equity issues with rights," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-215.
    4. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    5. María Jesús Pastor & Francisco Poveda, 2005. "Earnings Management As An Explanation Of The Equity Issue Puzzle," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. So, Eric C., 2013. "A new approach to predicting analyst forecast errors: Do investors overweight analyst forecasts?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 615-640.
    7. Fangjian Fu, 2010. "Overinvestment and the Operating Performance of SEO Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 249-272, March.
    8. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    9. Pawel Bilinski & Norman Strong, 2013. "Managers’ Private Information, Investor Underreaction and Long†Run SEO Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(5), pages 956-990, November.
    10. Shu, Pei-Gi & Chiang, Sue-Jane, 2014. "Firm size, timing, and earnings management of seasoned equity offerings," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 177-194.
    11. B Korcan Ak & Patricia M Dechow & Yuan Sun & Annika Yu Wang, 2013. "The use of financial ratio models to help investors predict and interpret significant corporate events," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(3), pages 553-598, December.
    12. Maher Kooli & Jean-François L'Her & Jean-Marc Suret, 2003. "Do IPOs Underperform in the Long-Run? New Evidence from the Canadian Stock Market," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-16, CIRANO.
    13. Ho, Keng-Yu, 2005. "Long-horizon abnormal performance following rights issues and placings: Additional evidence from the U.K. market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-45.
    14. Farinos, Jose E. & Garcia, C. Jose & Ibanez, Ana M., 2007. "Is the long-run underperformance of seasoned equity issues irrational? Evidence from Spain," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 183-199.
    15. Michael J. Alderson & Brian L. Betker, 2000. "The Long-Run Performance Of Companies That Withdraw Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 157-178, June.
    16. Datta, Sudip & Iskandar-Datta, Mai & Raman, Kartik, 2000. "Debt Structure Adjustments and Long-Run Stock Price Performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 427-453, October.
    17. Seung‐Doo Choi & Inmoo Lee & William Megginson, 2010. "Do Privatization IPOs Outperform in the Long Run?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 153-185, March.
    18. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis, 2009. "Seasoned equity offerings, operating performance and overconfidence: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 189-215.
    19. Demiralp, Ilhan & D'Mello, Ranjan & Schlingemann, Frederik P. & Subramaniam, Venkat, 2011. "Are there monitoring benefits to institutional ownership? Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1340-1359.
    20. Deepika Bagchee, 2009. "Investors Adjust Expectations Around Sell‐Side Analyst Revisions In Ipo Recommendations," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 53-70, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finanzas corporativas; ampliaciones de capital; predicciones de beneficios Corporate Finance; Seasoned Equity Offerings; Earnings Forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2004-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Departamento de Edición (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ievages.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.