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Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Will Kerry
Abstract
This paper measures the performance of different metrics in assessing banking system vulnerabilities. It finds that metrics based on equity market valuations of bank capital are better than regulatory capital ratios, and other metrics, in spotting banks that failed (bad apples). This paper proposes that these market-based ratios could be used as a surveillance tool to assess vulnerabilities in the banking sector. While the measures may provide a somewhat fuzzy signal, it is better to have a strategy for identifying bad apples, even if sometimes the apples turn out to be fine, than not being able to spot any bad apples before the barrel has been spoiled.

Suggested Citation

  • Will Kerry, 2019. "Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities," IMF Working Papers 2019/180, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/180
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iñaki Aldasoro & Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2018. "Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    4. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
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    6. Krainer, John & Lopez, Jose A, 2004. "Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1043-1067, December.
    7. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    8. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, 2005. "The Value of Market Information in Banking Supervision: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 139-162, April.
    9. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 2015. "Equity Recourse Notes: Creating Counter†cyclical Bank Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 131-157, August.
    10. Ms. TengTeng Xu & Kun Hu & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2019. "Bank Profitability and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2019/005, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Borsuk & Błażej Lepczyński, 2021. "Rating implikowany a koszt finansowania banków notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 87-109.
    2. Borsuk, Marcin & Lepczyński, Błażej, 2021. "Rating implikowany a koszt finansowania banków notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2021(1), March.
    3. Chatterjee, Somnath & Jobst, Andreas, 2019. "Market-implied systemic risk and shadow capital adequacy," Bank of England working papers 823, Bank of England.

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