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Economic Shocks and Rebel

Author

Listed:
  • Austin L. Wright

    (Harris School of Public Policy)

Abstract
Why do rebels vary their tactics? Some insurgents employ terrorism and hit-and run attacks; others wage conventional wars against state rivals. I argue rebels’ tactical choices reflect three constraints: economic opportunities of non-combatants, state strength, and rebel capacity. I test the argument with microdata on rebel violence in Colombia and exploit plausibly random shocks to local income. I find evidence that local economic shocks substantially affect rebel tactics. Specifically, when government forces benefit from local windfalls and economic opportunities for civilians improve, insurgents favor irregular tactics. Alternatively, when rebels are strengthened, they favor conventional tactics. These results are robust to accounting for numerous potential sources of bias, including atmospheric dispersion of illicit crop herbicides, violence spillovers from drug trafficking, and foreign military aid shocks. The main findings challenge prominent theories of insurgency, and are relevant to the comparative study of political violence, with important implications for scholars and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Austin L. Wright, 2016. "Economic Shocks and Rebel," HiCN Working Papers 232, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:232
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    File URL: http://www.hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/HiCN-WP-232.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Trebbi, Francesco & Weese, Eric & Wright, Austin L. & Shaver, Andrew, 2020. "Insurgent Learning," Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 1(3), pages 417-448, August.
    2. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    3. Thiemo Fetzer & Pedro C. L. Souza & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L. Wright, 2021. "Security Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(7), pages 2275-2308, July.
    4. Nicole Stoelinga, 2024. "Cultivation and competition in Colombia: Disentangling the effects of coca price changes on violence," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1007-1042, March.
    5. Nicola Limodio, 2022. "Terrorism Financing, Recruitment, and Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1711-1742, July.
    6. Limodio, Nicola, 2019. "Terrorism Financing, Recruitment and Attacks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Working Papers 287, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    7. Marius Mehrl & Paul W. Thurner, 2020. "Military Technology and Human Loss in Intrastate Conflict: The Conditional Impact of Arms Imports," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(6), pages 1172-1196, July.
    8. Morales, Juan S., 2021. "Legislating during war: Conflict and politics in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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