[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/liuewp/0002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Developing Countries Lose Money on Central Bank Intervention? The Case of Zambia in Copper-Market Boom and Bust

Author

Listed:
  • Simatele, Munacinga
  • Sjö, Bo

    (Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University)

  • Sweeny, Richard
Abstract
This paper is the first to discuss and estimate risk-adjusted intervention profits for a developing country, Zambia, representative of sub-Sahara African countries, of low-income and aid-recipient countries and the many developing countries dependent on natural-resource or staple exports. During the sample period 1996-2009, the copper market was a bust in the first half, with low prices and weak export demand; the Bank of Zambia intervened largely to sell dollars. The market boomed in the second half, and the BOZ largely bought dollars, save for a sharp break and rebound in 2008-2009. Estimated profits are positive for the whole period and are economically and statistically significant for the whole period and the second half. These stimates come from a new method developed in this paper. This method extends and corrects previous measures in the literature. It allows separating profits into those arising from timing ability and those arising from average exposure to risk, the equivalent of alpha or "stock picking." Because risk premiums are not available for Zambia, this paper uses an instrumental variables approach to adjust for risk. The paper also the first to investigate and fix problems arising from simultaneous equations bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Simatele, Munacinga & Sjö, Bo & Sweeny, Richard, 2016. "Do Developing Countries Lose Money on Central Bank Intervention? The Case of Zambia in Copper-Market Boom and Bust," LiU Working Papers in Economics 2, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:liuewp:0002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-125275
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Diaz-Roldan & Carmelo Monteagudo-Cuerva, 2013. "Fiscal policy under alternative monetary policy regimes," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, July.
    3. ., 2013. "The role of monetary policy," Chapters, in: Global Finance After the Crisis, chapter 4, pages 71-106, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Technical analysis and the profitability of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-17.
    5. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
    6. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 1-10.
    7. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    8. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-952, October.
    9. Sjoo, Boo & Sweeney, Richard J., 2000. "Time-varying foreign-exchange risk and central bank intervention: estimating profits from intervention and speculation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 275-286, December.
    10. Robert Andrew & John Broadbent, 1994. "Reserve Bank Operations in the Foreign Exchange Market: Effectiveness and Profitability," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9406, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Sweeney, R. J., 2000. "Does the Fed beat the foreign-exchange market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 665-694, May.
    12. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    13. Sweeney, Richard J., 2007. "Fed intervention, dollar appreciation, and systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 167-192, March.
    14. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
    15. Enzo Cassino & Michelle Lewis, 2012. "Currency intervention - the profitability of some recent international experiences," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Slavi T. Slavov, 2013. "De Jure versus De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(5), pages 732-756, November.
    17. Spencer, Peter D, 1989. "How to Make the Central Bank Look Good: A Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 233-235, February.
    18. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August.
    19. Sjoo, Boo & Sweeney, Richard J., 2001. "The foreign-exchange costs of central bank intervention: evidence from Sweden," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-247, April.
    20. Fischer, Andreas M., 2003. "Measurement error and the profitability of interventions: a closer look at SNB transactions data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 137-142, October.
    21. Piti Disyatat & Gabriele Galati, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 97-113, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
    23. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December.
    24. ., 2013. "Fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policy," Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Iraq, chapter 13, pages 247-266, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Pilbeam, Keith, 2001. "The profitability of central bank foreign exchange market intervention," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 523-530, July.
    26. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
    27. Spencer, Peter D, 1985. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 1019-1024, October.
    28. Taylor, Dean, 1989. "How to Make the Central Bank Look Good," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 226-232, February.
    29. Johnson, Harry G, 1976. "Destabilizing Speculation: A General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(1), pages 101-108, February.
    30. Michael P. Leahy, 1989. "The profitability of U.S. intervention," International Finance Discussion Papers 343, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Corrado, Charles J. & Taylor, Dean, 1986. "The cost of a central bank leaning against a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 303-314, September.
    32. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    33. Jonathan Chipili, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in Zambia," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 36-55.
    34. Simatele, Munacinga C H, 2004. "Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia," MPRA Paper 21575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Occasional Interventions to Target Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 691-715, September.
    36. Chris Becker & Michael Sinclair, 2004. "Profitability of Reserve Bank Foreign Exchange Operations: Twenty Years After the Float," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    37. Szpiro, George G., 1994. "Exchange rate speculation and chaos inducing intervention," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 363-368, August.
    38. Beenstock, Michael & Dadashi, Saiid, 1986. "The profitability of forward currency speculation by central banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 449-456, April.
    39. Taylor, Dean, 1982. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, or, Bet against the Central Bank," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(2), pages 356-368, April.
    40. Paul Moser-Boehm, 2005. "Governance aspects of foreign exchange interventions," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 19-39, Bank for International Settlements.
    41. Jonathan Mpundu Chipili, 2014. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in Zambia," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 114-121, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
    2. Sweeney, R. J., 2000. "Does the Fed beat the foreign-exchange market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 665-694, May.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
    5. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Sjoo, Boo & Sweeney, Richard J., 2000. "Time-varying foreign-exchange risk and central bank intervention: estimating profits from intervention and speculation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 275-286, December.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
    8. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "The case for foreign exchange intervention: the government as an active reserve manager," Working Papers 2004-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Schmidt, Robert & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2004. "Sterilized Foreign Exchange Market Interventions in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Exchange Rate Model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 50, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
    12. Michael Frenkel & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2004. "Modeling coordinated foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese and U.S. interventions in the 1990s," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 709-729, September.
    13. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
    14. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    15. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 1-10.
    16. Suk-Joong Kim & Jeffrey Sheen, 2018. "The Determinants of Foreign Exchange Intervention by Central Banks: Evidence from Australia," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 1, pages 3-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    18. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    19. Montserrat Ferré & Carolina Manzano, 2009. "When do central banks prefer to intervene secretly?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 378-393.
    20. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intervention; Intervention Profits; Exchange Rates; Central Bank; Zambia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:liuewp:0002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ali Ahmed (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anliuse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.