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Uncertainty and the Great Slump

Author

Listed:
  • Lennard, Jason

    (Department of Economic History, Lund University)

Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the macroeconomy of interwar Britain. A new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from contemporary newspapers indicates that this was a period of great anxiety. Time series evidence suggests that this uncertainty reduced output, raised unemployment and contributed to macroeconomic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Uncertainty and the Great Slump," Lund Papers in Economic History 170, Lund University, Department of Economic History, revised 14 May 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0170
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jason Lennard, 2023. "Sticky wages and the Great Depression: evidence from the United Kingdom," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 27(2), pages 196-222.
    2. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
    3. Ali Kabiri & Harold James & John Landon-Lane & David Tuckett & Rickard Nyman, 2020. "The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934," CESifo Working Paper Series 8336, CESifo.
    4. James Cloyne & Nicholas Dimsdale & Natacha Postel-Vinay, 2024. "Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 2168-2200.
    5. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2020. "When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 520, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Christou, Christina & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Time-Varying impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic variables of the united kingdom: Evidence from over 150 years of monthly data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    7. Lennard, Jason & Kenny, Seán & Horgan, Emma, 2023. "Banks and the Economy: Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966," CEPR Discussion Papers 18711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ronicle, David, 2022. "Turning in the widening gyre: monetary and fiscal policy in interwar Britain," Bank of England working papers 968, Bank of England.
    9. Benjamin Schneider & Hillary Vipond, 2023. "The Past and Future of Work: How History Can Inform the Age of Automation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10766, CESifo.
    10. Brian D. Varian, 2022. "Review of periodical literature for 2020: (v) 1850–1945," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(1), pages 263-275, February.
    11. Schneider, Benjamin & Vipond, Hillary, 2023. "The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation," Economic History Working Papers 119282, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    12. Schläger, Dan, 2024. "Unmasking the significance of uncertainty: a case study of the German interwar economy (1919-1935)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125837, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Jason Lennard & Meredith M. Paker, 2023. "Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 2403, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    14. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    15. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2023. "Macroeconomic tail risk, currency crises and the inter‐war gold standard," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1551-1582, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; interwar Britain; local projections; narrative identification; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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