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Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Uribe
Abstract
This paper introduces a real exchange rate rule of the type analyzed by Dornbusch (1982) in an optimizing, two-sector, monetary model of a small open economy. By this rule the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is below its long-run level and reduces it when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. I show that the mere existence of such a rule can give room for extrinsic uncertainty to have real effects, that is, it can generate economic fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. I also analyze the stabilizing role of these PPP rules when fluctuations are driven by shocks to fundamentals. I show that the volatility of real variables decreases with tighter rules when shocks to the supply of home goods or to the real rate of return are the main source of uncertainty, and increases when fluctuations are mainly due to shocks to the supply of traded goods. In all cases, PPP rules increase the volatility of nominal variables. Finally, PPP rules help stabilize both real and nominal variables when fluctuations originate from random but persistent deviations from the PPP rule itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Uribe, 1995. "Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability," International Finance Discussion Papers 505, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:505
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Shu Lin & Kang Shi & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and trade: The role of credit constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 203-222, October.
    3. Claus Rabe & Harris Selod, "undated". "Place-based economic policies: international lessons for South Africa," Working Papers 11, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    4. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    5. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bostjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Linfluence du régime de change sur linflation dans les pays adhérents," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 51-61.
    6. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two‐Block World Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1585-1612, December.
    7. Eric Schaling & James Bullard, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 362, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2009. "Ppp Exchange Rate Rules, Macroeconomic (In)Stability, And Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1103-1128, November.
    9. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2007. "Asset Prices, Nominal Rigidities, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 256-275, April.
    10. Airaudo, Marco, 2014. "Currency substitution, risk premia and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-217.
    11. Konstantin Styrin & Oleg Zamulin, 2012. "A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve," Working Papers w0179, New Economic School (NES).
    12. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/055, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, New Economic School (NES).
    14. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2016. "Superannuation and Macroeconomic Growth and Stability," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-267, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    15. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bo??tjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Acceding Countries: The Role of Pass-through," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-674, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    16. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
    17. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, April.
    18. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    19. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) & Narkevich, Sergei (Наркевич, Сергей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "The Transformation of the Role and Tasks of the Central Bank (Monetary Authorities) in the Modern Economy [Трансформация Роли И Задач Центральных Банков (Монетарных Властей) В Современной Экономике," Working Papers 2136, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    20. Airaudo, Marco, 2012. "Endogenous Dollarization, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Taylor Principle," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    21. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
    22. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Boštjan & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Macroeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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