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Uncertainty, risk, and incentives: theory and evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Zhiguo He
  • Si Li
  • Bin Wei
  • Jianfeng Yu
Abstract
Uncertainty has qualitatively different implications than risk in studying executive incentives. We study the interplay between profitability uncertainty and moral hazard, where profitability is multiplicative with managerial effort. Investors who face greater uncertainty desire faster learning, and consequently offer higher managerial incentives to induce higher effort from the manager. In contrast to the standard negative risk-incentive trade-off, this \"learning-by-doing\" effect generates a positive relation between profitability uncertainty and incentives. We document empirical support for this prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiguo He & Si Li & Bin Wei & Jianfeng Yu, 2013. "Uncertainty, risk, and incentives: theory and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-18
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    3. Zhiguo He & Bin Wei & Jianfeng Yu & Feng Gao, 2017. "Optimal Long-Term Contracting with Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 2006-2065.
    4. Qi Liu & Lei Lu & Bo Sun, 2017. "Incentive Contracting Under Ambiguity Aversion," International Finance Discussion Papers 1195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Röell, Ailsa & Peng, Lin & Tang, Hongfei, 2016. "CEO Incentives: Measurement, Determinants, and Impact on Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 11417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán-González, 2019. "Revisiting the Trade-off Between Risk and Incentives: The Shocking Effect of Random Shocks?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1096-1114, March.
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    8. Zhihua Chen & Yanfei Lan & Ruiqing Zhao, 2018. "Impacts of risk attitude and outside option on compensation contracts under different information structures," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 13-47, March.
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    11. Richardson, Vernon J. & Sanchez, Juan Manuel & Setia, Pankaj & Smith, Rodney, 2018. "Determinants and consequences of chief information officer equity incentives," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 37-57.
    12. Sebastian Gryglewicz & Barney Hartman-Glaser & Geoffery Zheng, 2020. "Growth Options, Incentives, and Pay for Performance: Theory and Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1248-1277, March.
    13. Huang, Rachel J. & Jeng, Vivian & Wang, Cheng-Wei & Yue, Jack C., 2021. "Does size and book-to-market contain intangible information about managerial incentives? Learning from corporate D&O insurance purchase," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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