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Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect

Author

Listed:
  • Selva Demiralp
Abstract
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained a general trend toward increased transparency and gradualism. This paper investigates the implications of these historical developments for the anticipation of monetary policy actions and adjustment of interest rates. In a theoretical framework, we establish the Fed's ability to manipulate overnight rates via an \"anticipation\" effect. The anticipation effect is defined as interest rate adjustments that take place prior to a policy announcement (or prior to when the complementary open market operations associated with that policy action take place) due to market's improved ability to predict future policy actions. Our empirical results document that most market rates adjust to anticipated policy actions prior to the actual announcement. Because the market responds to policy announcements instantly, the Trading Desk does not need to act immediately after the target change and can wait until the market incorporates the new information that comes with the policy announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-55
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
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    5. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    6. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Department of Economics 99-06, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    7. Gerald D. Cohen & Peter R. Fisher, 1997. "Open market operations during 1996," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 565-574.
    8. William Poole, 2001. "Expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 1-10.
    9. John B. Taylor, 2001. "Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 33-58.
    10. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2002. "Day-to-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 137-159, February.
    11. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2002. "The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 29-48.
    12. Laurence H. Meyer, 2001. "Does money matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 1-16.
    13. Cheryl L. Edwards, 1997. "Open market operations in the 1990s," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 83(Nov), pages 859-874, November.
    14. William Poole & Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 65-94.
    15. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
    16. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate (commentary)," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 33-58.
    17. Peter R. Fisher & R. Spence Hilton, 1999. "Highlights of domestic open market operations during 1998," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 217-235.
    18. Peter R. Fisher & R. Spence Hilton, 1999. "Domestic open market operations during 1999," Annual Report Domestic Open Market Operations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Peter R. Fisher & R. Spence Hilton, 1998. "Domestic open market operations during 1998," Annual Report Domestic Open Market Operations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Transparency, Disclosure, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 179-225, March.
    2. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1345-1438, Elsevier.
    3. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2018. "Central Banks' Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 163-185, September.
    5. Eijffinger, Sylvester & van der Cruijsen, Carin, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mira Farka & Adrian R. Fleissig, 2013. "The impact of FOMC statements on the volatility of asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1287-1301, April.
    7. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    8. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Syed M. Harun & M. Kabir Hassan & Tarek S. Zaher, 2005. "Effect of Monetary Policy on Commercial Banks Across Different Business Conditions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(1-2), pages 99-128, March-Jun.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Interest rates; Federal funds rate;
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