[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/259.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Congestion and cascades in payment systems

Author

Listed:
  • Morten L. Bech
  • Walter E. Beyeler
  • Robert J. Glass
  • Kimmo Soramaki
Abstract
We develop a parsimonious model of the interbank payment system to study congestion and the role of liquidity markets in alleviating congestion. The model incorporates an endogenous instruction arrival process, scale-free topology of payments between banks, fixed total liquidity that limits banks' capacity to process arriving instructions, and a global market that distributes liquidity. We find that at low liquidity, the system becomes congested and payment settlement loses correlation with payment instruction arrival, becoming coupled across the network. The onset of congestion is evidently related to the relative values of three characteristic times: the time for banks' net position to return to zero, the time for banks to exhaust their liquidity endowments, and the liquidity market relaxation time. In the congested regime, settlement takes place in cascades having a characteristic size. A global liquidity market substantially diminishes congestion, requiring only a small fraction of the payment-induced liquidity flow to achieve strong beneficial effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Morten L. Bech & Walter E. Beyeler & Robert J. Glass & Kimmo Soramaki, 2006. "Congestion and cascades in payment systems," Staff Reports 259, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:259
    Note: For a published version of this report, see Walter E. Beyeler, Robert J. Glass, Morten Bech, and Kimmo Soramäki, "Congestion and Cascades in Payment Systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 384, no. 2 (October 2007): 693-718.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr259.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr259.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James J. McAndrews & Simon M. Potter, 2002. "Liquidity effects of the events of September 11, 2001," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(Nov), pages 59-79.
    2. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    3. June Dong & Ding Zhang & Hong Yan & Anna Nagurney, 2005. "Multitiered Supply Chain Networks: Multicriteria Decision—Making Under Uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 155-178, March.
    4. Adrian Dragulescu & Victor M. Yakovenko, 2000. "Statistical mechanics of money," Papers cond-mat/0001432, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2000.
    5. Raymond K. Cheung & Warren B. Powell, 1996. "An Algorithm for Multistage Dynamic Networks with Random Arc Capacities, with an Application to Dynamic Fleet Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(6), pages 951-963, December.
    6. Hajime Inaoka & Takuto Ninomiya & Ken Taniguchi & Tokiko Shimizu & Hideki Takayasu, 2004. "Fractal Network derived from banking transaction -- An analysis of network structures formed by financial institutions --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    7. Bech, Morten L. & Garratt, Rod, 2003. "The intraday liquidity management game," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 198-219, April.
    8. Anna Nagurney & Jon Loo & June Dong & Ding Zhang, 2002. "Supply Chain Networks and Electronic Commerce: A Theoretical Perspective," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 187-220, November.
    9. Anna Nagurney & Jose Cruz, 2004. "Dynamics of international financial networks with risk management," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 276-291.
    10. Ponzi, A. & Aizawa, Y., 2000. "Evolutionary financial market models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 507-523.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leinonen, Harry (ed.), 2009. "Simulation analyses and stress testing of payment networks," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2009_042, July.
    2. Galbiati, Marco & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2011. "An agent-based model of payment systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 859-875, June.
    3. Leinonen, Harry, 2009. "Simulation analyses and stress testing of payment networks," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2009_042.
    4. Carlos León & Jhonatan Pérez & Luc Renneboog, 2014. "A multi-layer network of the sovereign securities market," Borradores de Economia 12036, Banco de la Republica.
    5. repec:zbw:bofism:2009_042 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Galbiati, Marco & Soramaki, Kimmo, 2010. "Liquidity-saving mechanisms and bank behaviour," Bank of England working papers 400, Bank of England.
    7. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2013. "Transient fluctuation of the prosperity of firms in a network economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(16), pages 3351-3359.
    8. Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2013. "Policy in adaptive financial markets—the use of systemic risk early warning tools," Working Papers (Old Series) 1309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Denbee, Edward & Norman, Ben, 2010. "The impact of payment splitting on liquidity requirements in RTGS," Bank of England working papers 404, Bank of England.
    10. Li, Fuchun & Perez-Saiz, Hector, 2018. "Measuring systemic risk across financial market infrastructures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Huberto M. Ennis & John A. Weinberg, 2007. "Interest on reserves and daylight credit," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Spr), pages 111-142.
    12. Soramäki, Kimmo & Cook, Samantha, 2012. "Algorithm for identifying systemically important banks in payment systems," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Fuchun Li & Héctor Pérez Saiz, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures," Staff Working Papers 16-10, Bank of Canada.
    14. Norman, Ben, 2010. "Financial Stability Paper No 7: Liquidity Saving in Real-Time Gross Settlement Systems - an Overview," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 7, Bank of England.
    15. Olivier Armantier & Jeffrey Arnold & James J. McAndrews, 2008. "Changes in the timing distribution of Fedwire funds transfers," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Sep), pages 83-112.
    16. León, Carlos & Berndsen, Ron J., 2014. "Rethinking financial stability: Challenges arising from financial networks’ modular scale-free architecture," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 241-256.
    17. León, C., 2015. "Financial stability from a network perspective," Other publications TiSEM bb2e4e44-e842-45c6-a946-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. De Caux, Robert & Brede, Markus & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Payment prioritisation and liquidity risk in collateralised interbank payment systems," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 139-150.
    19. Massimiliano Zanin & David Papo & Miguel Romance & Regino Criado & Santiago Moral, 2016. "The topology of card transaction money flows," Papers 1605.04938, arXiv.org.
    20. Marina Resta, 2016. "Enhancing Self‐Organizing Map Capabilities with Graph Clustering: An Application to Financial Markets," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1-2), pages 21-46, January.
    21. Perlin, Marcelo & Schanz, Jochen, 2011. "System-wide liquidity risk in the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 427, Bank of England.
    22. L. C. G. Rogers & L. A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Failure and Rescue in an Interbank Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(4), pages 882-898, April.
    23. Ball, Alan & Denbee, Edward & Manning, Mark & Wetherilt, Anne, 2011. "Financial Stability Paper No 11: Intraday Liquidity - Risk and Regulation," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 11, Bank of England.
    24. Soramäki, Kimmo & Cook, Samantha, 2013. "SinkRank: An algorithm for identifying systemically important banks in payment systems," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-27.
    25. Kei Imakubo & Yutaka Soejima, 2010. "The Microstructure of Japan's Interbank Money Market: Simulating Contagion of Intraday Flow of Funds Using BOJ-NET Payment Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 151-180, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rubio, Jeniffer & Pérez, Bryan & Arroyo, John, 2021. "Risk monitoring in Ecuador's payment system: Implementation of a network topology study," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(3).
    2. Kei Imakubo & Yutaka Soejima, 2010. "The Microstructure of Japan's Interbank Money Market: Simulating Contagion of Intraday Flow of Funds Using BOJ-NET Payment Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 151-180, November.
    3. Luca Arciero & Claudia Biancotti & Leandro D'Aurizio & Claudio Impenna, 2009. "Exploring Agent-Based Methods for the Analysis of Payment Systems: A Crisis Model for StarLogo TNG," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-2.
    4. Galbiati, Marco & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2011. "An agent-based model of payment systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 859-875, June.
    5. Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2010. "The topology of the federal funds market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(22), pages 5223-5246.
    6. Klaus Abbink & Ronald Bosman & Ronald Heijmans & Frans van Winden, 2017. "Disruptions in Large-Value Payment Systems: An Experimental Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 63-95, December.
    7. Affinito, Massimiliano & Franco Pozzolo, Alberto, 2017. "The interbank network across the global financial crisis: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 90-107.
    8. Morten L. Bech & Rodney J. Garratt, 2012. "Illiquidity in the Interbank Payment System Following Wide‐Scale Disruptions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 903-929, August.
    9. Hitoshi Hayakawa, 2020. "Liquidity in Financial Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 253-301, January.
    10. Gara Afonso & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Precautionary Demand and Liquidity in Payment Systems," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(s2), pages 589-619, October.
    11. Merrouche, Ouarda & Schanz, Jochen, 2010. "Banks' intraday liquidity management during operational outages: Theory and evidence from the UK payment system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 314-323, February.
    12. Garratt, Rodney & Zimmerman, Peter, 2020. "Centralized netting in financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Lux, Thomas, 2014. "Emergence of a Core-Periphery Structure in a Simple Dynamic Model of the Interbank Market," FinMaP-Working Papers 3, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    14. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. HORIKAWA Takumi & MATSUI Yujiro & GEMMA Yasufumi, 2021. "A Network Analysis of the JGB Repo Market," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    16. González-Avella, Juan Carlos & de Quadros, Vanessa Hoffmann & Iglesias, José Roberto, 2016. "Network topology and interbank credit risk," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 235-243.
    17. Lux, Thomas, 2014. "A model of the topology of the bank-firm credit network and its role as channel of contagion," Kiel Working Papers 1950, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Kahn, Charles M. & Roberds, William, 2009. "Why pay? An introduction to payments economics," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Clara Machado & Carlos León & Miguel Sarmiento & Freddy Cepeda & Orlando Chipatecua & Jorge Cely, 2011. "Riesgo Sistémico Y Estabilidad Del Sistema De Pagos De Alto Valor En Colombia: Análisis Bajo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(65), pages 106-175, June.
    20. George ANTON & Cosmin-Octavian CEPOI & Cătălin-Emilian HUIDUMAC-PETRESCU, 2022. "Estimating Probability of Default for Systemically Important Financial Institutions during Covid-19 Pandemic. Evidence from Europe and USA," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 44-53, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    network; topology; interbank; payment; money markets; sandpile model; congestion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.