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Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy

Author

Abstract
We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns of fifty-four sectors in twenty-six countries. We first present a conceptual framework based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover pattern consistent with a spatial autoregression (SAR) process. We then use the SAR model to decompose the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy on stock returns into a direct and a network effect. We find that up to 80 percent of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on average country-sector stock returns is due to the network effect of global production linkages. We further show that U.S. monetary policy shocks have a direct impact predominantly on U.S. sectors and then propagate to the rest of the world through the global production network. Our results are robust to controlling for correlates of the global financial cycle, foreign monetary policy shocks, and to changes in variable definitions and empirical specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2020. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Staff Reports 945, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:89010
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    4. Julian di Giovanni & John Rogers, 2024. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 58-115, March.
    5. Rodnyansky, A. & Timmer, Y. & Yago, N., 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2357, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    7. Mistak, Jakub & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2024. "Asymmetric monetary policy spillovers: the role of supply chains, credit networks and fear of floating," Working Paper Series 2995, European Central Bank.
    8. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: International Trade and the Foreign Effects of US Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 300-325, March.
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    13. Thomas, Lina, 2023. "Ripple effect: Disentangling the global impact web of US monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
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    16. Xie, Haixia & Sha, Yezhou & Li, Lingyi, 2024. "Synthesization of macroeconomic policies and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
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    Keywords

    global production network; asset prices; monetary policy shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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