[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednrp/9821.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How important is the stock market effect on consumption?

Author

Abstract
The 1990s have seen astonishing growth in the stock market portfolios of Americans, which many have argued has been a major force behind the growth of consumer spending. This paper reviews the relationship between the stock market and the consumer. Using a variety of econometric techniques and specifications, we fail to find evidence of a stable relationship between aggregate consumer spending and changes in aggregate household wealth. While stock market gains have surely provided some support for consumer spending, our hard knowledge is too limited to feel comfortable relying on estimates of the stock market effect in macroeconomic forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Research Paper 9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9821.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9821.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Charles Steindel, 1981. "The determinants of private saving," Monograph, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 1981tdop.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
    6. Alan S. Blinder & Angus Deaton, 1985. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 465-521.
    7. Charles Steindel, 1992. "Changes in the U.S. cycle: shifts in capital spending and balance sheet changes," Research Paper 9224, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    9. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Patricia C. Mosser, 1992. "Changes in monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from large macroeconomic models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(Spr), pages 36-51.
    12. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1976. "Illiquidity, Consumer Durable Expenditure, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 642-654, September.
    13. Modigliani, Franco & Tarantelli, E, 1975. "The Consumption Function in a Developing Economy and the Italian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 825-842, December.
    14. Gali, Jordi, 1990. "Finite horizons, life-cycle savings, and time-series evidence on consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 433-452, December.
    15. James M. Poterba & Andrew A. Samwick, 1995. "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 295-372.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    17. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    18. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. Sewin Chan & Henry Schneider & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Are stocks overtaking real estate in household portfolios?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Apr).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    2. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
    3. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
    4. Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "A note on the cointegration of consumption, income, and wealth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1050, European Central Bank.
    6. MacDonald, Ronald & Molana, Hassan, 2004. "Can portfolio adjustments explain deviations of consumption from permanent income?: An empirical study of UK data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 313-331, December.
    7. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    8. Yener Coskun & Burak Sencer Atasoy & Giacomo Morri & Esra Alp, 2018. "Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, June.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vansteenkiste, Isabel S., 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging market economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 155-166.
    11. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Empirical Proxies for the Consumption-Wealth Ratio," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 34-51, January.
    12. Andriy Avramenko & Michael R. Donihue, 2006. "Decomposing consumer wealth effects: evidence on the role of real estate assets following the wealth cycle of 1990-2002," Working Papers 06-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2003. "Property of stocks and wealth effects on consumption," NIPE Working Papers 2/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    14. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, September.
    15. Athanasopoulos, George & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 116-129, September.
    16. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
    17. Luis Miguel Pacheco & Jose Martins Barata, 2005. "Residential and Stock Market Effects on Consumption across Europe," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 255-278.
    18. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank.
    19. Ostergaard, C. & Sorensen, B.E. & Yosha, O., 1998. "Permanent Income, Consumption, and Aggregate Constraints: Evidence from US States," Papers 02-98, Tel Aviv.
    20. Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Measuring noise in the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, September.
    21. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investments; Wealth; Consumption (Economics);
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.