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Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bacchetta

    (Study Center Gerzensee, University of Lausanne, FAME and CEPR)

  • Eric van Wincoop

    (University of Virginia, NBER)

Abstract
Empirical evidence shows that observed macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates (the exchange rate determination puzzle). On the other hand, the recent \microstructure approach to exchange rates" has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flow. In this paper we introduce symmetric information dispersion about future fundamentals in a dynamic rational expectations model in order to explain these stylized facts. Consistent with the evidence the model implies that (i) observed fundamentals account for little of exchange rate volatility in the short to medium run, (ii) over long horizons the exchange rate is closely related to observed fundamentals, (iii) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals, and (iv) the exchange rate is closely related to order flow over both short and long horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    • Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp155
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    File URL: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch/rp155.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    4. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2009. "Policy with Dispersed Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 11-60, March.
    5. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
    6. He, Qing & Korhonen, Iikka & Guo, Junjie & Liu, Fangge, 2016. "The geographic distribution of international currencies and RMB internationalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 442-458.
    7. Jennifer La'O & George-Marios Angeletos, 2009. "Dispersed Information over the Business Cycle: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2013. "Dodging the Steamroller: Fundamentals versus the Carry Trade," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2013.
    9. Jennifer La'O, 2010. "Collateral Constraints and Noisy Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 780, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. John A. Carlson & Christian M. Dahl & Carol L. Osler, 2008. "Short-run Exchange-rate Dynamics: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers 39, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    11. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    12. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201506101281 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2023. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1041-1083.
    14. He, Qing & Korhonen, Iikka & Guo, Junjie & Liu, Fangge, 2016. "The geographic distribution of international currencies and RMB internationalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 442-458.
    15. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2010. "Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance: A Neoclassical Approach," NBER Working Papers 15883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Rancière & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development," Economics Working Papers 850, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro," Working Papers hal-04141139, HAL.
    18. Angeletos, George-Marios & La’O, Jennifer, 2009. "Incomplete information, higher-order beliefs and price inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 19-37.
    19. Guido Lorenzoni & George-Marios Angeletos, 2010. "Price Making Intermediation," 2010 Meeting Papers 963, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201506101281 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Anella Munro, 2005. "UIP, Expectations and the Kiwi," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    22. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    23. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nominal Exchange Rates; Order Flow; Higher Order Expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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