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The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wright, Robert
  • Leishman, Chris
  • Gibb, Kenneth
  • Chen, Yu
Abstract
This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

Suggested Citation

  • Wright, Robert & Leishman, Chris & Gibb, Kenneth & Chen, Yu, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-78, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:380
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/380
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    Cited by:

    1. Creina Day, 2018. "Population and house prices in the United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 127-141, May.
    2. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 189-210.
    4. Yihua Wang & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2022. "The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-65, February.
    5. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Borisov, Petar & Petrov, Kamen & Tsonkov, Nikolay, 2024. "Integration perspectives for improving regional policy in rural areas of Bulgaria," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 10(1), March.
    8. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 815-836.

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