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The economic costs of supply chain decoupling

Author

Listed:
  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia
  • Boeckelmann, Lukas
  • Meunier, Baptiste
Abstract
As countries and firms increasingly seek ways to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains, this paper studies the global economic costs of a decoupling of global supply chains along geopolitical lines as well as in strategic sectors. We explore not only the long-run effects, but also the short-run costs stemming from rigid wages and low substitutability across factors of production and input goods. We find that, in terms of welfare losses, the costs of decoupling are roughly five times higher in the short-run compared to the long-run, while country losses are heterogeneous. A reshaping of global supply chains increases the level of consumer prices in most countries, as well as producer prices, especially for trade-intensive manufacturing sectors. Global supply chain decoupling entails also a reallocation of labour across skill levels. Finally, global trade would decrease substantially, driven by lower trade in intermediate inputs and a higher reliance of countries on domestic production. JEL Classification: F12, F13, F14, F51, F62

Suggested Citation

  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Boeckelmann, Lukas & Meunier, Baptiste, 2023. "The economic costs of supply chain decoupling," Working Paper Series 2839, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232839
    Note: 930374
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2839~aaf35001a3.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881469, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvana Tenreyro & Ludovica Ambrosino & Jenny Chan, "undated". "Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1225, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    3. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    4. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    5. Alessandro D'Orazio & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2024. "Geoeconomic fragmentation and firms' financial performance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 844, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Tasso Adamopoulos & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Trade Risk and Food Security," Working Papers 2024-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Feb 2024.
    7. Francesco Cappelletti & Gérard Pogorel, 2024. "Sustainable? Competitive? The EU’s Industrial Autonomy – Facts and Fantasies," Post-Print hal-04505097, HAL.
    8. Ilkova, Ivelina & Lebastard, Laura & Serafini, Roberta, 2024. "Geopolitics and trade in the euro area and the United States: de-risking of import supplies?," Occasional Paper Series 359, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decoupling; global value chains; international trade; trade modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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