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Asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR

Author

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  • Velasco, Sofia
Abstract
This paper introduces a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR (BQFAVAR) to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy throughout the business cycle. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the model effectively captures non-linearities in impulse responses. Analysis of aggregate responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock reveals that financial variables and industrial production exhibit more pronounced impacts during recessions compared to expansions, aligning with predictions from the ’financial accelerator’ propagation mechanism literature. Additionally, inflation displays a higher level of symmetry across economic conditions, consistent with households’ loss aversion in the context of reference-dependent preferences and central banks’ commitment to maintaining price stability. The examination of price rigidities at a granular level, employing sectoral prices and quantities, demonstrates that during recessions, the contractionary policy shock results in a more pronounced negative impact on quantities compared to expansions. This finding provides support for the notion of stronger downward than upward price rigidity, as suggested by ’menu-costs models’. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E37, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Velasco, Sofia, 2024. "Asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR," Working Paper Series 2983, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242983
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2983~ad23b7c8e2.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric effects of monetary policy; Bayesian Quantile VAR; disaggregate prices; FAVAR; non-linear models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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