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Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries

Author

Listed:
  • Chiriacescu, Bogdan
  • Lalinsky, Tibor
  • Čede, Urška
  • Meriküll, Jaanika
  • Harasztosi, Péter
Abstract
The literature shows that openness to trade improves long-term growth but also that it may increase exposure to high output volatility. In this vein, our paper investigates whether exporting and export diversification at the firm level have an effect on the output volatility of firms. We use large representative firm-level databases from Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia over the last boom-bust cycle in 2004-2012. The results confirm that exporting is related to higher volatility at the firm level. There is also evidence that this effect increased during the Great Recession due to the large negative shocks in export markets. In contrast to the literature and empirical findings for large or advanced countries we do not find a statistically significant and consistent mitigating effect from export diversification in the Central and Eastern European countries. In addition, exporting more products or serving more markets does not necessarily result in higher stability of firm sales. JEL Classification: F14, F43, O57

Suggested Citation

  • Chiriacescu, Bogdan & Lalinsky, Tibor & Čede, Urška & Meriküll, Jaanika & Harasztosi, Péter, 2016. "Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries," Working Paper Series 1902, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161902
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Qian, Ningyu & Shen, Yinjie (Victor), 2021. "The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Aid for trade and inflation: Exploring the trade openness, export product diversification and foreign direct investment channels," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 563-593, December.
    5. Minjung Kim, 2022. "Trade and employment volatility of firms during the global financial crisis and post-crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2091-2109, May.
    6. Abdul Rashid & M. Kabir Hassan & Hafsa Karamat, 2021. "Firm size and the interlinkages between sales volatility, exports, and financial stability of Pakistani manufacturing firms," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 111-134, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; CEE; Central and Eastern Europe; export diversification; export share; volatility of sales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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