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Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Stan du Plessis
  • Ben Smit
  • Federico Sturzenegger
Abstract
This paper uses a structural VAR methodology to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks to real output for the South African economy. Demand shocks, in turn, are separated into fiscal and monetary shocks. The model is estimated with quarterly data over two overlapping samples: 1960Q2-2006Q4 and 1983Q4-2006Q4. The identified (structural) shocks were used in a historical decomposition to split output into a measure of potential output (resulting from the evolution of supply shocks) and a measure of the business cycle (the gap between actual and potential output). This measure of potential output suggests a significant decline relative to trend in the years prior to the political transition of 1994 and a swift reversal thereafter. The paper presents evidence from three sources to support its identification of aggregate supply and demand shocks. These sources are the following: theory consistent impulse response functions; a close match between the implied measure of the business cycle and independent information about the South African business cycle; and a demonstration of the close match between the identified series of aggregate supply shocks and important historical events in the decades prior to and following 1994 that have been identified by economic historians as important shocks to the South African economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa," Growth Lab Working Papers 14f, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    • Handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:14f
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying steady‐state growth and inflation in the South African economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 279-300, September.
    2. Kevin Kotze & Stan Du Plessis, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel A. Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working Papers 201228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Johannes Hermanus Kemp, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 549-568, December.
    5. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    6. Johannes W. Fedderke & Daniel K. Mengisteab, 2017. "Estimating South Africa's Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(2), pages 161-177, June.
    7. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    8. Stan du Plessis & Gideon du Rand, 2011. "On the (non-)equivalence of capital adequacy and monetary policy: A response to Cechetti and Kohler," Working Papers 04/2011, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    9. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "The Role Of The Exchange Rate In A New Keynesian Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 170-191, June.
    10. Cobus Vermeulen, 2023. "The inherent uncertainties in output gap estimation a South African perspective," Working Papers 11051, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Amusa, Kafayat & Gupta, Rangan & Karolia, Shaakira & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D., 2013. "The long-run impact of inflation in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 798-812.
    12. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 639-677, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; Aggregate Supply; Aggregate Demand; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Potential Output; Long-run Restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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