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Double overreaction in beauty-contests with information acquisition: theory and experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Romain Baeriswyl

    (Swiss National Bank, Boersenstrasse 15, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Kene Boun My

    (BETA-Strasbourg University, 61 Avenue de la Forêt Noire - 67085 Strasbourg Cedex, France)

  • Camille Cornand

    (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France)

Abstract
Central banks' disclosures, such as forward guidance, have a weaker effect on the economy in reality than in theoretical models. The present paper contributes to understanding how people pay attention and react to various sources of information. In a beauty-contest with information acquisition, we show that strategic complementarities give rise to a double overreaction to public disclosures by increasing agents equilibrium attention, which, in turn, increases the weight assigned to them in equilibrium action. A laboratory experiment provides evidence that the effect of strategic complementarities on the realised attention and the realised action is qualitatively consistent with theoretical predictions, though quantitatively weaker. Both the lack of attention to public disclosures and a limited level of reasoning by economic agents account for the weaker realised reaction. This suggests that it is just as important for a central bank to control reaction to public disclosures by swaying information acquisition by recipients as it is by shaping information disclosures themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Baeriswyl & Kene Boun My & Camille Cornand, 2019. "Double overreaction in beauty-contests with information acquisition: theory and experiment," Working Papers 1932, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:1932
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Boun My, Kene & Cornand, Camille & Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe, 2021. "Public information and the concern for coordination," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Comment on “No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations” by Philippe Andrade, Olivier Coibion, Erwan Gautier and Yuriy Gorodnichenko," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 57-61.
    3. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.
    4. Jonathan G. James & Philip Lawler, 2024. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication and the Social Value of Public Information," Working Papers 2024-03, Swansea University, School of Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    beauty-contest; information acquisition; overreaction; central bank communication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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