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Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Barnett

    (Arizona State University - W.P. Carey School of Business)

  • Greg Buchak

    (Stanford University - Graduate School of Business)

  • Constantine Yannelis

    (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business)

Abstract
We examine how policymakers should react to a pandemic when there is significant uncertainty regarding key parameters relating to the disease. In particular, this paper explores how optimal mitigation policies change when incorporating uncertainty regarding the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and the Basic Reproduction Rate (R0) into a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. This paper finds that optimal policy under parameter uncertainty generates an asymmetric optimal mitigation response across different scenarios: when the disease’s severity is initially underestimated the planner increases mitigation to nearly approximate the optimal response based on the true model, and when the disease’s severity is initially overestimated the planner maintains lower mitigation as if there is no uncertainty in order to limit excess economic costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-72, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-72
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    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_202072.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Yanming & Luo, Pengfei, 2023. "Optimal capital structure and credit spreads under pandemic shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    2. Barrios, John M. & Hochberg, Yael V., 2021. "Risk perceptions and politics: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 862-879.
    3. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2022. "Self-fulfilling Lockdowns in a Simple SIR-Macro Model," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1183, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Ministry of Finance, 2021. "Saving Lives and Livelihoods 01 Amidst a Once-in-a-Century Crisis: Chapter I, Economic Survey 2020-21," Working Papers id:13133, eSocialSciences.
    5. Etienne Farvaque & Hira Iqbal & Nicolas Ooghe, 2020. "Health politics? Determinants of US states’ reactions to COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03128875, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; coronavirus; model uncertainty; dynamic general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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