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Explicit investment rules with time-to-build and uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Ren'e Aid
  • Salvatore Federico
  • Huy^en Pham
  • Bertrand Villeneuve
Abstract
We establish explicit socially optimal rules for an irreversible investment deci- sion with time-to-build and uncertainty. Assuming a price sensitive demand function with a random intercept, we provide comparative statics and economic interpreta- tions for three models of demand (arithmetic Brownian, geometric Brownian, and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross). Committed capacity, that is, the installed capacity plus the in- vestment in the pipeline, must never drop below the best predictor of future demand, minus two biases. The discounting bias takes into account the fact that investment is paid upfront for future use; the precautionary bias multiplies a type of risk aversion index by the local volatility. Relying on the analytical forms, we discuss in detail the economic effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren'e Aid & Salvatore Federico & Huy^en Pham & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2014. "Explicit investment rules with time-to-build and uncertainty," Papers 1406.0055, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1406.0055
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pacheco-de-Almeida, Goncalo & Zemsky, Peter, 2003. "The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(1), pages 166-182, Spring.
    2. Giorgio Ferrari, 2012. "On an integral equation for the free-boundary of stochastic, irreversible investment problems," Papers 1211.0412, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
    3. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
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    5. Milne, Alistair & Whalley, A Elizabeth, 2000. "'Time to build, option value and investment decisions': a comment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 325-332, May.
    6. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Sulem, Agnes & Zanello, Alessandro, 2002. "Time-to-build and capacity choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-98, January.
    7. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    8. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2003. "Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1239-1272.
    9. Gonçalo Pacheco-De-Almeida & Peter Zemsky, 2003. "The Effect of Time-to-Build on Strategic Investment under Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-00576375, HAL.
    10. Bruder, Benjamin & Pham, Huyên, 2009. "Impulse control problem on finite horizon with execution delay," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(5), pages 1436-1469, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mike Ludkovski, 2022. "Regression Monte Carlo for Impulse Control," Papers 2203.06539, arXiv.org.
    2. Julien Prat & Benjamin Walter, 2021. "An Equilibrium Model of the Market for Bitcoin Mining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2415-2452.
    3. De Cesare, Luigi & Sportelli, Mario, 2022. "A non-linear approach to Kalecki’s investment cycle," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 57-70.
    4. Torben Koch & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2019. "Optimal Installation of Solar Panels with Price Impact: a Solvable Singular Stochastic Control Problem," Papers 1911.04223, arXiv.org.
    5. Salvatore Federico & Mauro Rosestolato & Elisa Tacconi, 2018. "Irreversible investment with fixed adjustment costs: a stochastic impulse control approach," Papers 1801.04491, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    6. Aïd, René & Basei, Matteo & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2023. "A Stationary Mean-Field Equilibrium Model of Irreversible Investment in a Two-Regime Economy," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 679, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    7. Aïd, René & Li, Liangchen & Ludkovski, Michael, 2017. "Capacity expansion games with application to competition in power generation investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-31.
    8. Jukka Lempa, 2020. "Some results on optimal stopping under phase-type distributed implementation delay," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 91(3), pages 559-583, June.
    9. Genc, Talat S., 2017. "The impact of lead time on capital investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 142-164.
    10. Magnus Perninge, 2018. "A limited-feedback approximation scheme for optimal switching problems with execution delays," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 87(3), pages 347-382, June.
    11. Giorgio Fabbri & Fausto Gozzi & Andrzej Swiech, 2017. "Stochastic Optimal Control in Infinite Dimensions - Dynamic Programming and HJB Equations," Post-Print hal-01505767, HAL.
    12. Ren'e Aid & Matteo Basei & Giorgio Ferrari, 2023. "A Stationary Mean-Field Equilibrium Model of Irreversible Investment in a Two-Regime Economy," Papers 2305.00541, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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