[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaa155/245172.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?

Author

Listed:
  • Meyers, William H.
  • Schroeder, Kateryna G.
Abstract
The paper provides an overview of the factors contributing to the decline in agricultural commodity prices and prospects to 2025 with a particular focus on supply, demand and policy factors. Agricultural and other commodity markets continue to be depressed, causing concern among farmers and their organizations as well as among policy makers concerned about the well-being of farmers. Factors contributing to these market changes are the excellent crops in recent years and growing stocks, the massive decline in petroleum prices that reduce production cost and slow biofuel demand growth, slowing economic growth in major importing countries like China, and changing exchange rate dynamics. We will use the FAPRI outlook update from August 2016 to assess the factors that are driving those results. Then we will offer commentary on what changes in market conditions or policies could alter the projected outcomes. Recent developments in trade disputes and regional trade agreements will also be assessed based on recent studies of these developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyers, William H. & Schroeder, Kateryna G., 2016. "Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?," 155th Seminar, September 19-21, 2016, Kiev, Ukraine 245172, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa155:245172
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.245172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/245172/files/Kyiv%20paper%20EAAE%20conference%20Meyers%20and%20Schroeder%20final%20for%20AE%20search.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.245172?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dillen, Koen, 2015. "The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211574, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Meyers, William H. & Westhoff, Patrick & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2010. "The FAPRI Global Modeling System and Outlook Process," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31534, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Natalia Karlova & Vasily Uzun & Natalia Shagaida & Renata Yanbykh, 2015. "Russian Agriculture: the impact of sanctions," Published Papers 212, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    4. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, 2017. "The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 537-552, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Banse, Martin & Duric, Ivan & Götz, Linde & Laquai, Verena, 2019. "From the Russian food import ban to free trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok - will farmers benefit?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 20-31.
    2. Daria Loginova & Judith Irek, 2022. "Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2021. "Investigating Alternative Poultry Trade Policies in the Context of African Countries: Evidence from Ghana," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. José M. Rueda-Cantuche & Tamas Revesz & Antonio F. Amores & Agustín Velázquez & Marian Mraz & Emanuele Ferrari & Alfredo J. Mainar-Causapé & Letizia Montinari & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Improving the European input–output database for global trade analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Lenka Rumankova & Elena Kuzmenko & Irena Benesova & Lubos Smutka, 2022. "Selected EU Countries Crop Trade Competitiveness from the Perspective of the Czech Republic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, January.
    6. Peter Maniloff, 2013. "Ethanol and Energy Security," Working Papers 2013-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    7. Gerasymchuk Nataliia, 2017. "Development of methodological concept of resource-saving development of agro-industrial complex," Technology audit and production reserves, 4(36) 2017, Socionet;Technology audit and production reserves, vol. 4(5(36)), pages 26-31.
    8. Loginova, Daria, 2022. "Assessing the Short-term Effect of Exchange Rate Liberalisation on Food Import Prices: The Regression Discontinuity in Time Employed for Russian Food Markets in 2014," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 3(3), September.
    9. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2020. "Tariff Escalation and Import Bans in the Economic Partnership Agreement between the EU and West Africa," Conference papers 333239, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Thompson, Wyatt & Lu, Yaqiong & Gerlt, Scott & Yang, Xianyu & Campbell, J. Elliott & Kueppers, Lara M. & Snyder, Mark A., 2018. "Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 98-105.
    11. Carriquiry, Miguel & Elobeid, Amani & Goodrich, Ryan, 2016. "Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235888, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Ivanov, Bozhidar & Sokolova, Emilia, 2014. "Modelling of cereal and oilseed crop production in Bulgaria in the context of policy changes," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 116(1), pages 1-7, April.
    13. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Do, Manh Hung, 2021. "Impact of economic sanctions and counter-sanctions on the Russian Federation’s trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 267-278.
    14. Sirgit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenkery, 2022. "European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-03898833, HAL.
    15. Hyytiä Nina, 2020. "Russian Food Import Ban – Impacts on Rural and Regional Development in Finland," European Countryside, Sciendo, vol. 12(4), pages 506-526, December.
    16. Aklesso Egbendewe-Mondzozo & Scott M. Swinton & Shujiang Kang & Wilfred M. Post & Julian C. Binfield & Wyatt Thompson, 2015. "Bioenergy Supply and Environmental Impacts on Cropland: Insights from Multi-market Forecasts in a Great Lakes Subregional Bioeconomic Model," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 602-618.
    17. Massiani, Jerome, 2019. "CGE Analysis of Mega Events: A Timely Issue," Conference papers 333109, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Jurkėnaitė, Nelė & Djuric, Ivan, 2018. "Impact of the Russian trade bans on Lithuanian pork sector," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 481-491.
    19. Бородин К.Г., 2018. "Оценка Влияния Продовольственного Эмбарго И Экономических Санкций На Товарные Рынки (На Примере Рынков Мяса)," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 54(4), pages 41-59, октябрь.
    20. Amzul Rifin & Feryanto & Herawati & Harianto, 2020. "Assessing the impact of limiting Indonesian palm oil exports to the European Union," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa155:245172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.