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Does inflation cause growth in the reform-era China? Theory and evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Qichun He

    (Central University of Finance and Economics)

  • Heng-fu Zou

    (Central University of Finance and Economics
    World Bank)

Abstract
The government reaps seigniorage revenue from higher rates of money growth, hiring away more workers from entrepreneurs (the government crowding-out effect). There is also a positive seigniorage effect when part of the revenue goes to entrepreneurs, acting as a subsidy to R&D. When the government retains a larger share of the revenue, the government crowding-out effect dominates, and inflation retards growth. When entrepreneurs get the larger share, the seigniorage effect dominates, and inflation increases growth. Both OLS (ordinary least squares) and IV (instrumental variable) regressions using time-series data during 1979–2014 in China show that differenced inflation (to ensure stationarity) has a significantly positive effect on growth. When we use the level of inflation, we find that a 1 percentage point increase in annual inflation would bring a 0.53 percentage point increase in annual growth of per worker real GDP. The robust, causal effect of inflation on growth in China provides support for our theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Qichun He & Heng-fu Zou, 2016. "Does inflation cause growth in the reform-era China? Theory and evidence," CEMA Working Papers 601, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:wpaper:601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Qichun He, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 15(4), pages 626-641, December.
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    4. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "Interactive effects of monetary policy and patent protection: The role of endogenous innovation size," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Svetlana Zenchenko & Wadim Strielkowski & Luboš Smutka & Tomáš Vacek & Yana Radyukova & Vladislav Sutyagin, 2022. "Monetization of the Economies as a Priority of the New Monetary Policy in the Face of Economic Sanctions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, March.
    6. He, Qichun & Zhang, Zhixiang, 2019. "Inflation and Growth: An Inverted-U Relationship," MPRA Paper 97092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    8. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fan & Yuichi Furukawa, 2021. "Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 874-909, July.
    9. Qichun He & Heng-fu Zou, 2024. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation: Schumpeterian Theory and Evidence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(2), pages 463-500, November.
    10. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and health in a Schumpeterian growth model: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 159-168.
    11. Zheng, Zhijie & Huang, Chien-Yu & Wan, Xi, 2020. "Human Capital and Income Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," MPRA Paper 101912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    13. Angus C. Chu, 2022. "Inflation, innovation, and growth: A survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 863-878, July.
    14. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and fertility in a Schumpeterian growth model: Theory and evidence1," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 113-126.
    15. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2017. "Inflation and economic growth in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous entry of heterogeneous firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 392-409.
    16. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih‐Hsing Liao, 2019. "Inflation and Innovation in a Schumpeterian Economy with North–South Technology Transfer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 683-719, March.
    17. He, Qichun, 2018. "Health and Innovation in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," MPRA Paper 85218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. He, Qichun, 2023. "The inverted-U effect of inflation on growth: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    19. Njegovan Nikola & Simin Mirela Tomaš, 2020. "Inflation and Prices of Agricultural Products," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(2), pages 203-217, June.
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    21. Zheng, Zhijie & Wan, Xi & Huang, Chien-Yu, 2023. "Inflation and income inequality in a Schumpeterian economy with heterogeneous wealth and skills," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seigniorage revenue; R&D; Augmented Solow model; Instrumental variables estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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