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Evaluating the “Threat” Effects of Grade Repetition. Exploiting the 2001 Reform by the French-Speaking Community of Belgium

Author

Listed:
  • Michèle BELOT

    (Oxford University, Nuffield Centre for Experimental Social Sciences (CESS), Nuffield College)

  • Vincent VANDENBERGHE

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract
Like active labour market programmes (ALPMs), grade repetition could generate two types of effects. Better/worse outcomes due to programme participation (i.e. the fact that pupils repeat a particular grade). This is what the existing literature on grade repetition has focused on. Another potential outcome is the ‘threat’ effect of grade repetition. Pupils and/or their family could make significant efforts to avoid grade repetition and its important opportunity cost. Learning effort by pupils could be a function of the risk of grade repetition. This paper attempts to assess that relationship by exploiting a reform introduced in 2001 in the French-Speaking Community of Belgium, synonymous with a reinforced overall threat of grade repetition. The possibility to impose grade repetition sanctions and the end of grade 8-12 has always existed, but in year 2001, policy makers reinstated the possibility to repeat grade 7, putting an end to the regime of “social promotion” applicable to that grade since 1995. We use data from two waves of the PISA study (corresponding to periods before and after the reform) to evaluate the medium-term effects of this reform. The first measure of performance we consider is the position in the curriculum (or grade) reached at the age of 15, and we show that it deteriorated after 2001. We also consider the reform’s impact on test scores. Focusing on grade 10, we fail to verify the necessary condition for grade repetition threat to lead to higher test scores. The tentative conclusion is that an enhanced threat of grade retention after 2001 did not lead to better medium-term outcomes, even among the segments of the population the most at risk of grade repetition.

Suggested Citation

  • Michèle BELOT & Vincent VANDENBERGHE, 2011. "Evaluating the “Threat” Effects of Grade Repetition. Exploiting the 2001 Reform by the French-Speaking Community of Belgium," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2011026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2011026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    2. Ferman, Bruno & Pinto, Cristine, 2016. "Revisiting the Synthetic Control Estimator," MPRA Paper 73982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Álvaro Choi & María Gil & Mauro Mediavilla & Javier Valbuena, 2016. "Double toil and trouble: grade retention and academic performance," Working Papers 2016/7, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    4. Simon ter Meulen, 2023. "Long-Term Effects of Grade Retention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10212, CESifo.
    5. Erich Battistin & Antonio Schizzerotto, 2019. "Threat of grade retention, remedial education and student achievement: evidence from upper secondary schools in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 651-678, February.
    6. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Ferreira Sequeda, Maria & Golsteyn, Bart & Parra Cely, Sergio, 2018. "The effect of grade retention on secondary school performance: Evidence from a natural experiment," ROA Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    8. Agasisti, Tommaso & Cordero, Jose M., 2017. "The determinants of repetition rates in Europe: Early skills or subsequent parents’ help?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 129-146.
    9. Servaas van der Berg & Gabrielle Wills & Rebecca Selkirk & Charles Adams & Chris van Wyk, 2019. "The cost of repetition in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    10. Kaul, Ashok & Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor & Schieler, Manuel, 2015. "Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," MPRA Paper 83790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Zoltan Hermann & Marianna Kopasz, 2018. "Educational policies and the gender gap in test scores: A cross-country analysis," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1805, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Grade retention; educational attainment; threat effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education

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