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Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment

Author

Listed:
  • Schmidt, Sebastian
  • Coenen, Günter
  • Montes-Galdón, Carlos
Abstract
The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, we show that, if unaddressed, the effective lower bound can cause substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance, as reflected in negative biases in inflation and economic activity, as well as heightened macroeconomic volatility. These costs can be mitigated by the use of nonstandard instruments, notably the joint use of interest-rate forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. When considering alternatives to inflation targeting, we find that make-up strategies such as price-level targeting and average-inflation targeting can, if they are well-understood by the private sector, largely undo the negative biases and heightened volatility induced by the effective lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt, Sebastian & Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2021. "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 16403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16403
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    3. Budianto, Flora & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
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    10. Stéphane Dupraz & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2022. "Make-up Strategies with Finite Planning Horizons but Forward-Looking Asset Prices," Working papers 862, Banque de France.
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    12. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies at the effective lower bound," Technical Papers 03/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    15. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    16. Alessandro Cantelmo & Pietro Cova & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Make-up strategies and exchange rate pass-through in a low-interest-rate environment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1398, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    19. Herzog, Bodo, 2023. "How credible is average and symmetric inflation targeting in an episode of high inflation?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1750-1761.
    20. Lucian Briciu & Stefan Hohberger & Luca Onorante & Beatrice Pataracchia & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2023. "The ECB Strategy Review - Implications for the Space of Monetary Policy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 193, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    22. Eleni Argiri & Ifigeneia Skotida, 2021. "The 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem: an economy of forces," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 23-57, December.
    23. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel & Röttger, Joost & Scheer, Alexander, 2021. "A comparison of monetary policy rules in an estimated TANK model," Technical Papers 05/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Effective lower bound; Monetary policy; Asset purchases; Forward guidance; Make-up strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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