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Monetary Policy and the Current Account: Theory and Evidence

Author

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  • Wieladek, Tomasz
  • Hjortsø, Ida
  • Weale, Martin
Abstract
Does the current account improve or deteriorate following a monetary policy expansion? We examine this issue theoretically and empirically. We show that a standard open economy DSGE model predicts that the current account response to a monetary policy shock depends on the degree of economic regulation in different markets. In particular, financial (product market) liberalisation makes it more likely that the current account deteriorates (improves) following a monetary expansion. We test these theoretical predictions with a varying coefficient Bayesian panel VAR model, where the coefficients are allowed to vary as a function of the degree of financial, product and labour market regulation on data from 1976Q1-2006Q4 for 19 OECD countries. Our empirical results support the theory. We therefore conclude that following a monetary policy expansion, the current account is more likely to go into deficit (surplus) in countries with more liberalised financial (product) markets.

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  • Wieladek, Tomasz & Hjortsø, Ida & Weale, Martin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 11204, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11204
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2022. "A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2024. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber? The shocks matter," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 114-130.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E52; Balance of payments; Bayesian panel var; Economic liberalisation; Monetary policy. jel classification: f32; Current account;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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