[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/5076.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair

Author

Listed:
  • Sonin, Konstantin
  • Goriaev, Alexei P.
Abstract
The Yukos affair, a high-profile story of the state-led assault on a private Russian company, provides an excellent opportunity for an inquiry into the nature of company-specific political risks in emerging markets. News associated primarily with law enforcement agencies’ actions against company’s managers, not formally related to the company itself, caused significant negative abnormal returns for Yukos. The results are robust and not driven by a few major events, such as the arrests of Yukos’ top managers and shareholders. Stocks of less transparent private Russian companies have been more sensitive to Yukos-related events, especially employee-related charges by the law enforcement agencies. The situation was different for less transparent government-owned companies such as the world-largest natural gas producer Gazprom: they appear to be significantly less sensitive to these events. Actions of regulatory agencies have had predominantly industry-wide impact, whereas law-enforcement agencies’ actions affected shares of large private companies, especially those were privatized in the notorious loans-for-shares privatization auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonin, Konstantin & Goriaev, Alexei P., 2005. "Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair," CEPR Discussion Papers 5076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP5076
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    2. Jean Paul Azam & Robert Bates & Bruno Biais, 2009. "Political Predation And Economic Development," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, July.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Ignazio Angeloni & Federico Etro, 2005. "International Unions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 602-615, June.
    4. repec:bla:econom:v:38:y:1971:i:152:p:421-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sonin, Konstantin, 2003. "Why the rich may favor poor protection of property rights," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 715-731, December.
    6. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November.
    7. Glaeser, Edward & Scheinkman, Jose & Shleifer, Andrei, 2003. "The injustice of inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 199-222, January.
    8. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Growth, distribution and politics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 593-602, April.
    9. Bento J. Lobo, 1999. "Jump risk in the U.S. stock market: Evidence using political information," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 149-163, September.
    10. Alexander Dyck & Luigi Zingales, 2002. "The Corporate Governance Role of the Media," NBER Working Papers 9309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron, 2003. "Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 620-652, December.
    12. Eaton, Jonathan & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "Exchange Risk, Political Risk, and Macroeconomic Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 183-189, March.
    13. Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1998. "Regulatory Discretion and the Unofficial Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 387-392, May.
    14. Kim, Harold Y. & Mei, Jianping P., 2001. "What makes the stock market jump? An analysis of political risk on Hong Kong stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1003-1016, December.
    15. Jef Vuchelen, 2003. "Electoral systems and the effects of political events on the stock market: The Belgian case," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 85-102, March.
    16. Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2005. "A Normal Country: Russia After Communism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 151-174, Winter.
    17. Gilbert Holland Montague, 1903. "The Later History of the Standard Oil Company," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 17(2), pages 293-325.
    18. Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Cronyism and capital controls: evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-382, February.
    19. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
    20. Clark, Ephraim, 1997. "Valuing political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 477-490, June.
    21. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav & Kuznetsov, Andrei & Demina, Natalia & Kuznetsova, Olga, 2013. "Threats to security of property rights in a transition economy: An empirical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 245-264.
    2. Goriaev, Alexei & Zabotkin, Alexei, 2006. "Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 380-397, December.
    3. Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Dictators and oligarchs: A dynamic theory of contested property rights," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Scott Gehlbach, 2006. "The Consequences of Collective Action: An Incomplete‐Contracts Approach," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 802-823, July.
    5. Lozinskaia, Agata & Saltykova, Anastasiia, 2019. "Fundamental Factors Affecting the MOEX Russia Index: Retrospective Analysis," MPRA Paper 97308, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Sep 2019.
    6. Durnev, Art & Fauver, Larry, 2008. "Stealing from Thieves: Firm Governance and Performance when States are Predatory," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-12, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Agata Lozinskaia & Anastasiia Saltykova, 2019. "Fundamental Factors Affecting The Moex Russia Index: Structural Break Detection In A Long-Term Time Series," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/FE/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Art Durnev & Sergei Guriev, 2007. "The Resource Curse: A Corporate Transparency Channel," Working Papers w0108, New Economic School (NES).
    9. Alexeev, Michael & Weber, Shlomo (ed.), 2013. "The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199759927.
    10. Al Khattab, Adel & Anchor, John R. & Davies, Eleanor M.M., 2008. "The institutionalisation of political risk assessment (IPRA) in Jordanian international firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 688-702, December.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5um2bhne3f862raaulvoogm15e is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Alexander Libman, 2006. "Government-Business Relations and Catching Up Reforms in the CIS," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 3(2), pages 263-288, December.
    13. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Arshad, Shaista & Alam, Nafis, 2018. "A tripartite inquiry into volatility-efficiency-integration nexus - case of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 143-161.
    14. Restrepo, Diana & Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5um2bhne3f862raaulvoogm15e is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Olga Lazareva & Andrei Rachinsky & Sergey Stepanov, 2008. "A Survey of Corporate Governance in Russia," Springer Books, in: Robert W. McGee (ed.), Corporate Governance in Transition Economies, chapter 32, pages 315-349, Springer.
    17. Timothy Frye & Andrei Yakovlev, 2015. "Elections and Property Rights: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 29/PS/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    18. Art Durnev & Vihang Errunza & Alexander Molchanov, 2009. "Property rights protection, corporate transparency, and growth," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 40(9), pages 1533-1562, December.
    19. Felipe Bastos G. Silva & Ekaterina Volkova, 2018. "Can VPIN forecast geopolitical events? Evidence from the 2014 Crimean Crisis," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 125-141, February.
    20. Zadorozhna Olha & Zaderey Natalia, 2013. "Impact of Political Regime Shift on Stock Returns of Oligarch Firms," EERC Working Paper Series 13/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    21. Benjamin Maury & Eva Liljeblom, 2009. "Oligarchs, political regime changes, and firm valuation1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(3), pages 411-438, July.
    22. R. Sverchkov & K. Sonin., 2014. "Financial Markets Efficiency (Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics 2013)," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernard Yeung & Randall Morck & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2004. "Corporate Governance, Economic Entrenchment and Growth," Working Papers 04-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Soumyajit Mazumder, 2016. "Can I stay a BIT longer? The effect of bilateral investment treaties on political survival," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 477-521, December.
    3. Scott Gehlbach & Konstantin Sonin & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2010. "Businessman Candidates," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 718-736, July.
    4. Francis,David C. & Kubinec ,Robert, 2022. "Beyond Political Connections : A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-levelPolitical Influence in 41 Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10119, The World Bank.
    5. Masami Imai, 2006. "Mixing Family Business with Politics in Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 241-256, September.
    6. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C., 2014. "Escaping political extraction: Political participation, institutions, and cash holdings in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 98-112.
    7. Hongbin Li & Lingsheng Meng & Junsen Zhang, 2005. "Why Do Entrepreneurs Enter Politics?," Discussion Papers 00009, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    8. Durnev, Art & Fauver, Larry, 2008. "Stealing from Thieves: Firm Governance and Performance when States are Predatory," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-12, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Onal, Bunyamin, 2023. "Do politically connected directors play an information role under policy uncertainty?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Natalia Lamberova & Konstantin Sonin, 2018. "Economic transition and the rise of alternative institutions : Political connections in Putin's Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 615-648, October.
    11. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
    12. Deniz Igan & Prachi Mishra & Thierry Tressel, 2012. "A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 195-230.
    13. Liu, Li & Liu, Qigui & Tian, Gary & Wang, Peipei, 2018. "Government connections and the persistence of profitability: Evidence from Chinese listed firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 110-129.
    14. Hallward-Driemeier,Mary C. & Kochanova,Anna & Rijkers,Bob, 2020. "Does Democratization Promote Competition? : Indonesian Manufacturing Pre and Post Suharto," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9112, The World Bank.
    15. Zengji Song & Abraham Nahm & Zongyi Zhang, 2015. "The value of partial state ownership in publicly listed private sector enterprises: evidence from China," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 336-353, September.
    16. Yan Leung Cheung & P. Raghavendra Rau & Aris Stouraitis, 2012. "How much do firms pay as bribes and what benefits do they get? Evidence from corruption cases worldwide," NBER Working Papers 17981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Chune Young Chung & Jung Hoon Byun & Jason Young, 2019. "Corporate Political Ties and Firm Value: Comparative Analysis in the Korean Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Nan Zhang & Qiaozhuan Liang & Huiying Li & Xiao Wang, 2022. "The organizational relationship–based political connection and debt financing: Evidence from Chinese private firms," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 69-105, January.
    19. Matthew Hill & Kathleen Fuller & G. Kelly & Jim Washam, 2014. "Corporate cash holdings and political connections," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 123-142, January.
    20. Jiang, Haiyan & Hu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Honghui & Zhou, Donghua, 2018. "Benefits of Downward Earnings Management and Political Connection: Evidence from Government Subsidy and Market Pricing," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 255-273.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; Privatization; Oil; company specific political risk; Russian stock market;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.