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Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-off

Author

Listed:
  • Giancarlo Corsetti

    (Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
    University of Cambridge)

  • Luca Dedola

    (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
    European Central Bank)

  • Sylvain Leduc

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract
What determines the optimal monetary trade-off between internal objectives (inflation and output gap) and external objectives (competitiveness and trade imbalances) when inefficient capital flows cause exchange rate misalignment and distort current account positions? We characterize this trade-off analytically, using the workhorse model of modern monetary theory in open economies under incomplete markets–where inefficient capital flows and exchange rate misalignments can arise independently of nominal distortions. We derive aquadratic approximation of the utility-based global policy loss function under fairly general assumptions on preferences and openness, and solve for the optimal targeting rules under cooperation. We show that, in economies with a low degree of exchange rate pass-through, the optimal response to inefficient capital inflows associated with real appreciation is contractionary, above and beyond the natural rate: the optimal policy curbs excessive demand at the cost of exacerbating currency overvaluation. In contrast, a high degree of pass-through, and/or low trade elasticities, warrants expansionary policies that lean against exchange rate appreciation and competitive losses, at the cost of inefficient inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-off," Discussion Papers 1806, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1806
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    4. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary spillovers with imperfect financial markets," Staff Reports 849, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Jacob, Punnoose & Uusküla, Lenno, 2019. "Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-89.
    6. Corsetti, G. & Han, L. & Crowley, M. & Song, H., 2018. "Markets and Markups: Evidence on the Rising Market Power of Exporters from China," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1815, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency misalignments; Trade imbalances; Asset markets and risk sharing; Optimal targeting rules; International Policy; Exchange rate pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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