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Covid-19 Fatalities and Internal Conflict: Does Government Economic Support Matter?

Author

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  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
  • Hassan F. Gholipour
Abstract
In this study, we look at the association between COVID-19 fatality rate and internal conflict, highlighting the importance of government economic support under the pandemic as a moderating factor. Our main hypothesis implies that increased COVID-19 fatality rates are likely to be positively associated with internal conflict in countries with lower levels of government economic support. Our empirical analysis confirms this prediction: employing cross-country data for more than 100 countries, the estimation results demonstrate that the positive effect of COVID-19 fatality rates on internal conflict may become insignificant with higher levels of government economic support. In countries where government spending in response to the pandemic is less than 5 to 6% of GDP, there is a significant risk of internal conflict resulting from increased COVID-19 fatality rates. Our main findings hold when we control for the effects of other socio-economic determinants relating to pre-pandemic internal political stability and alternative measures of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hassan F. Gholipour, 2021. "Covid-19 Fatalities and Internal Conflict: Does Government Economic Support Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9352, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9352
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    Cited by:

    1. Chowdhury, Subhasish & Karmakar, Senjuti, 2022. "The Interrelationship between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Conflict Behavior: A Survey," MPRA Paper 113311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Karanfil, Fatih, 2023. "Fiscal policy in oil and gas-exporting economies: Good times, bad times and ugly times," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; conflict; political stability; fatality; fiscal measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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