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25 Years of European Merger Control

Author

Listed:
  • Pauline Affeldt
  • Tomaso Duso
  • Florian Szücs
Abstract
We study the evolution of EC merger decisions over the first 25 years of common European merger policy. Using a novel dataset at the level of the relevant antitrust markets and containing all merger cases scrutinized by the Commission over the 1990-2014 period, we evaluate how consistently arguments related to structural market parameters – dominance, concentration, barriers to entry, and foreclosure – were applied over time and across different dimensions such as the geographic market definition and the complexity of the merger. Simple, linear probability models as usually applied in the literature overestimate on average the effects of the structural indicators. Using non-parametric machine learning techniques, we find that dominance is positively correlated with competitive concerns, especially in concentrated markets and in complex mergers. Yet, its importance has decreased over time and significantly following the 2004 merger policy reform. The Commission’s competitive concerns are also correlated with concentration and the more so, the higher the entry barriers and the risks of foreclosure. These patterns are not changing over time. The role of the structural indicators in explaining competitive concerns does not change depending on the geographic market definition.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Affeldt & Tomaso Duso & Florian Szücs, 2020. "25 Years of European Merger Control," CESifo Working Paper Series 8213, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clougherty, Joseph A. & Duso, Tomaso & Lee, Miyu & Seldeslachts, Jo, 2016. "Effective European Antitrust : Does EC Merger Policy Generate Deterrence?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 1884-1903.
    2. Mats A Bergman & Malcolm B Coate & Anh T V Mai & Shawn W Ulrick, 2019. "Does Merger Policy Converge After The 2004 European Union Reform?," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 664-689.
    3. Stefan Wager & Susan Athey, 2018. "Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(523), pages 1228-1242, July.
    4. Pauline Affeldt & Tomaso Duso & Klaus Gugler & Joanna Piechucka, 2021. "Market Concentration in Europe: Evidence from Antitrust Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1930, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Tomaso Duso & Klaus Gugler & Florian Szücs, 2013. "An Empirical Assessment of the 2004 EU Merger Policy Reform," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(11), pages 596-619, November.
    6. Joseph A. Clougherty & Jo Seldeslachts, 2013. "The Deterrence Effects of US Merger Policy Instruments," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(5), pages 1114-1144, October.
    7. Philippon, Thomas & Gutierrez, German, 2018. "How EU Markets Became More Competitive Than US Markets: A Study of Institutional Drift," CEPR Discussion Papers 12983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Federico Mini, 2018. "Fifty is the New Forty: EU Merger Policy Permits Higher Market Shares After the 2004 Reform," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 53(3), pages 535-561, November.
    9. Szücs, Florian, 2012. "Investigating transatlantic merger policy convergence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 654-662.
    10. Volker Nocke & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "Concentration Screens for Horizontal Mergers," NBER Working Papers 27533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bruce R. Lyons, 2004. "Reform of European Merger Policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 246-261, May.
    12. Pauline Affeldt, 2019. "EU Merger Policy Predictability Using Random Forests," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1800, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Bergman, Mats A. & Jakobsson, Maria & Razo, Carlos, 2005. "An econometric analysis of the European Commission's merger decisions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 717-737, December.
    14. Mats Bergman & Malcolm Coate & Maria Jakobsson & Shawn Ulrick, 2010. "Comparing Merger Policies in the European Union and the United States," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 36(4), pages 305-331, June.
    15. Pauline Affeldt & Tomaso Duso & Florian Szücs, 2018. "EU Merger Control Database: 1990-2014," Data Documentation 95, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhardt, Lea, 2020. "Common factors of withdrawn and prohibited mergers in the European Union," Working Paper 184/2020, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    2. Joel Stiebale & Florian Szücs, 2022. "Mergers and market power: evidence from rivals' responses in European markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(4), pages 678-702, December.
    3. Tomaso Duso & Lea Bernhardt & Joanna Piechucka, 2024. "The Evolution of Theories of Harm in EU Merger Control," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2090, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Tomaso Duso & Lea Bernhardt & Joanna Piechucka, 2024. "The Evolution of Theories of Harm in EU Merger Control," CESifo Working Paper Series 11218, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    merger policy; EU Commission; dominance; concentration; entry barriers; foreclosure; causal forests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K21 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Antitrust Law
    • L40 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - General

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