[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_358.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

European Market Integration for Gas? Volume Flexibility and Political Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Asche
  • Petter Osmundsen
  • Ragnar Tveterås
Abstract
Gas exports to the Continent are regulated by long term take-or-pay contracts. The contracts are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the most central European gas market, the German market, is integrated. Are there substantial price differences between gas from different export countries, and do prices move together? Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market (the Law of One Price holds). We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Ragnar Tveterås, 2000. "European Market Integration for Gas? Volume Flexibility and Political Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 358, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_358
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo_wp358.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May.
    2. Lewbel, Arthur, 1996. "Aggregation without Separability: A Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 524-543, June.
    3. Stigler, George J & Sherwin, Robert A, 1985. "The Extent of the Market," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 555-585, October.
      • Stigler, George J. & Sherwin, Robert A., 1983. "The Extent of the Market," Working Papers 31, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    4. Frank Asche & Helge Bremnes & Cathy R. Wessells, 1999. "Product Aggregation, Market Integration, and Relationships between Prices: An Application to World Salmon Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 568-581.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. repec:clg:wpaper:1999-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Douglas G. Sauer, 1994. "Measuring Economic Markets for Imported Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 107-124.
    9. Apostolos Serletis & John Herbert, 2007. "The Message in North American Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 13, pages 156-171, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Martin Ravallion, 1986. "Testing Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 102-109.
    11. Barry K. Goodwin & Thomas J. Grennes & Michael K. Wohlgenant, 1990. "A Revised Test of the Law of One Price Using Rational Price Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 682-693.
    12. Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. W. David Walls, 1994. "Price Convergence Across Natural Gas Fields and City Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 15(4), pages 37-48, October.
    15. Doane, Michael J & Spulber, Daniel F, 1994. "Open Access and the Evolution of the U.S. Spot Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 477-517, October.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    17. Slade, Margaret E, 1986. "Exogeneity Tests of Market Boundaries Applied to Petroleum Products," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 291-303, March.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    20. Osmundsen, Petter, 1999. "Risk sharing and incentives in norwegian petroleum extraction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 549-555, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    2. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    3. Frank Asche & Helge Bremnes & Cathy R. Wessells, 1999. "Product Aggregation, Market Integration, and Relationships between Prices: An Application to World Salmon Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 568-581.
    4. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2005. "Is It All Oil?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1401, CESifo.
    5. Frank Asche, 2001. "Testing the effect of an anti-dumping duty: The US salmon market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 343-355.
    6. Usman Qamar Sheikh & Muhammad Zafar Iqbal & Hafiz Khalil Ahmad, 2016. "The Impact of Foreign Aid, Energy Production and Human Capital on Income Inequality: A Case Study of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, March.
    7. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    8. Chin Lee & M. Azali, 2010. "Currency Linkages Among Asean," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 459-470.
    9. repec:bla:scandj:v:103:y:2001:i:1:p:127-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kawai, Masahiro & Ohara, Hidetaka, 1997. "Nonstationarity of Real Exchange Rates in the G7 Countries: Are They Cointegrated with Real Variables?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 523-547, December.
    11. Lee, Chin & M., Azali, 2013. "Financial Integration among ASEAN+3 Countries: Evidence from Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 58162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    13. Florine Livat, 2007. "Mesure des interactions de prix : une analyse des modalités de substitution parmi sept vins de Bordeaux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 127-145.
    14. Anders, Q. Nyrud, 2002. "Integration in the Norwegian pulpwood market: domestic prices versus external trade," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 213-225.
    15. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    16. Xiarchos, Irene M. & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2009. "Price and volatility transmission between primary and scrap metal markets," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 664-673.
    17. K.O. Adenegan & J.A. Bamidele & L.O.E. Nwauwa, 2016. "Spatial Price Linkages of Brown Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) in Nigerian National Markets," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 8(1-2), pages 65-78, April.
    18. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    19. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    20. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    21. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.