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Quantifying the Germany Shock: Structural Labor-Market Reforms and Spillovers in a Currency Union

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2023

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Fadinger
  • Philipp Herkenhoff
  • Jan Schymik
Abstract
We examine the effects of unilateral structural reforms within a currency union. Focusing on the surge of German competitiveness following the introduction of the Euro, we first provide reduced-form causal evidence supporting the notion that German structural labor-market reforms in the early 2000s led to a crowding-out of manufacturing employment in other Eurozone economies. To assess the impact of this German competitiveness shock, we build a quantitative multi-sector trade model that features downward nominal wage rigidities, endogenous labor supply, unemployment-insurance benefits and international savings. The fixed nominal exchange rate can create binding nominal rigidities in response to a foreign real supply shock – like the one prompted by the German reforms – resulting in significant contraction of manufacturing sectors and increased involuntary unemployment across other Eurozone countries. We consider a number of counterfactual scenarios, such as the impact of German labor-market reforms in the absence of a fixed exchange-rate regime, the role of coordinated reforms within the Eurozone and a higher average inflation rate.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Fadinger & Philipp Herkenhoff & Jan Schymik, 2023. "Quantifying the Germany Shock: Structural Labor-Market Reforms and Spillovers in a Currency Union," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15045
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    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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