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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Breznau, Nate
  • Rinke, Eike Mark
  • Wuttke, Alexander
  • Nguyen, Hung H. V.
  • Adem, Muna
  • Adriaans, Jule
  • Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia
  • Andersen, Henrik K.
  • Auer, Daniel
  • Azevedo, Flavio
  • Bahnsen, Oke
  • Schlueter, Elmar
  • Schmidt, Regine
  • Schmidt, Katja M.
  • Schmidt-Catran, Alexander
  • Schmiedeberg, Claudia
  • Schneider, Jürgen
  • Schoonvelde, Martijn
  • Schulte-Cloos, Julia
  • Schumann, Sandy
  • Bauer, Paul C.
  • Christmann, Pablo
  • Schunck, Reinhard
  • Schupp, Jürgen
  • Seuring, Julian
  • Silber, Henning
  • Sleegers, Willem
  • Sonntag, Nico
  • Staudt, Alexander
  • Steiber, Nadia
  • Steiner, Nils
  • Sternberg, Sebastian
  • Connelly, Roxanne
  • Baumann, Markus
  • Stiers, Dieter
  • Stojmenovska, Dragana
  • Storz, Nora
  • Striessnig, Erich
  • Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin
  • Teltemann, Janna
  • Tibajev, Andrey
  • Tung, Brian
  • Vagni, Giacomo
  • Czymara, Christian S.
  • Van Assche, Jasper
  • Baute, Sharon
  • van der Linden, Meta
  • van der Noll, Jolanda
  • Van Hootegem, Arno
  • Vogtenhuber, Stefan
  • Voicu, Bogdan
  • Wagemans, Fieke
  • Wehl, Nadja
  • Werner, Hannah
  • Damian, Elena
  • Wiernik, Brenton M.
  • Winter, Fabian
  • Benoit, Verena
  • Wolf, Christof
  • Yamada, Yuki
  • Zhang, Nan
  • Ziller, Conrad
  • Zins, Stefan
  • Żółtak, Tomasz
  • Bernauer, Julian
  • Ecker, Alejandro
  • Berning, Carl
  • Berthold, Anna
  • Bethke, Felix S.
  • Biegert, Thomas
  • Blinzler, Katharina
  • Blumenberg, Johannes N.
  • Bobzien, Licia
  • Bohman, Andrea
  • Bol, Thijs
  • Bostic, Amie
  • Edelmann, Achim
  • Brzozowska, Zuzanna
  • Burgdorf, Katharina
  • Burger, Kaspar
  • Busch, Kathrin B.
  • Carlos-Castillo, Juan
  • Chan, Nathan
  • Eger, Maureen A.
  • Ellerbrock, Simon
  • Forke, Anna
  • Forster, Andrea
  • Micheli, Leticia
  • Gaasendam, Chris
  • Gavras, Konstantin
  • Gayle, Vernon
  • Gessler, Theresa
  • Gnambs, Timo
  • Godefroidt, Amélie
  • Grömping, Max
  • Groß, Martin
  • Gruber, Stefan
  • Gummer, Tobias
  • Mijs, Jonathan
  • Hadjar, Andreas
  • Heisig, Jan Paul
  • Hellmeier, Sebastian
  • Heyne, Stefanie
  • Hirsch, Magdalena
  • Hjerm, Mikael
  • Hochman, Oshrat
  • Hövermann, Andreas
  • Hunger, Sophia
  • Hunkler, Christian
  • Moya, Cristóbal
  • Huth, Nora
  • Ignácz, Zsófia S.
  • Jacobs, Laura
  • Jacobsen, Jannes
  • Jaeger, Bastian
  • Jungkunz, Sebastian
  • Jungmann, Nils
  • Kauff, Mathias
  • Kleinert, Manuel
  • Klinger, Julia
  • Neunhoeffer, Marcel
  • Kolb, Jan-Philipp
  • Kołczyńska, Marta
  • Kuk, John
  • Kunißen, Katharina
  • Kurti Sinatra, Dafina
  • Langenkamp, Alexander
  • Lersch, Philipp M.
  • Löbel, Lea-Maria
  • Lutscher, Philipp
  • Mader, Matthias
  • Nüst, Daniel
  • Madia, Joan E.
  • Malancu, Natalia
  • Maldonado, Luis
  • Marahrens, Helge
  • Martin, Nicole
  • Martinez, Paul
  • Mayerl, Jochen
  • Mayorga, Oscar J.
  • McManus, Patricia
  • McWagner, Kyle
  • Nygård, Olav
  • Meeusen, Cecil
  • Meierrieks, Daniel
  • Mellon, Jonathan
  • Merhout, Friedolin
  • Merk, Samuel
  • Meyer, Daniel
  • Ochsenfeld, Fabian
  • Otte, Gunnar
  • Pechenkina, Anna O.
  • Prosser, Christopher
  • Balzer, Dave
  • Raes, Louis
  • Ralston, Kevin
  • Ramos, Miguel R.
  • Roets, Arne
  • Rogers, Jonathan
  • Ropers, Guido
  • Samuel, Robin
  • Sand, Gregor
  • Schachter, Ariela
  • Schaeffer, Merlin
  • Bauer, Gerrit
  • Schieferdecker, David
Abstract
This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Breznau, Nate & Rinke, Eike Mark & Wuttke, Alexander & Nguyen, Hung H. V. & Adem, Muna & Adriaans, Jule & Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia & Andersen, Henrik K. & Auer, Daniel & Azevedo, Flavio & Bahnsen, Oke, 2022. "Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 119(44), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:266342
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2203150119
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    as
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    2. Felix Holzmeister & Magnus Johannesson & Robert Böhm & Anna Dreber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2023. "Heterogeneity in effect size estimates: Empirical evidence and practical implications," Working Papers 2023-17, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    3. Yu, Bin, 2023. "What is uncertainty in today’s practice of data science?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    4. Cantone, Giulio Giacomo & Tomaselli, Venera, 2023. "Multiversal Methods and Applications," MetaArXiv ukvw7, Center for Open Science.
    5. Cantone, Giulio Giacomo & Tomaselli, Venera, 2023. "A Multiversal Model of Vibration of Effects of the Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being (BES) on Fertility," MetaArXiv z5msx, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    metascience; many analysts; researcher degrees of freedom; analytical flexibility; immigration and policy preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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