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Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Coppejans

    (Barclays Global Investors)

  • Donna Gilleskie

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and NBER)

  • Holger Sieg

    (Carnegie Mellon University and NBER)

  • Koleman Strumpf

    (Kansas School of Business)

Abstract
We develop a demand model for goods that are subject to habit formation. We show that consumption plans of forward-looking individuals depend on preferences, current period prices, and individual beliefs about the evolution of future prices. Moreover, an increase in price uncertainty reduces consumption along the optimal path. With smoking as our application, we test the predictions of our model using a unique data set of prices for cigarettes and the restricted-use version of the National Education Longitudinal Study. Our estimation results suggest that teenagers who live in metropolitan areas with a large amount of cigarette price volatility have, on average, significantly lower levels of cigarette consumption. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Coppejans & Donna Gilleskie & Holger Sieg & Koleman Strumpf, 2007. "Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 510-521, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:89:y:2007:i:3:p:510-521
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    Cited by:

    1. Cowan, Benjamin W., 2011. "Forward-thinking teens: The effects of college costs on adolescent risky behavior," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 813-825, October.
    2. G. Guindon, 2014. "The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(1), pages 19-39, January.
    3. Koohi, Shiva, 2017. "College prospects and risky behavior among Mexican immigrant youth: The effects of in-state tuition policies on schooling and childbearing," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 162-174.
    4. GOTO Mizuki & HAYAKAWA Kazunobu & KOIBUCHI Satoshi & YOSHIMI Taiyo, 2023. "Export Experience and the Choice of Invoice Currency: Evidence from a questionnaire survey of Japanese SMEs," Discussion papers 23032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Rebecca K Scott, 2014. "Tax Salience vs. Price Uncertainty: Disentangling the Effects of Attention and Rational Habits," Economics Series Working Papers 736, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Valentina Raimondi & Margherita Scoppola & Alessandro Olper, 2012. "Preference erosion and the developing countries exports to the EU: a dynamic panel gravity approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(4), pages 707-732, December.
    7. Hong Liu & John A. Rizzo & Qi Sun & Fang Wu, 2015. "How Do Smokers Respond to Cigarette Taxes? Evidence from China's Cigarette Industry," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(10), pages 1314-1330, October.
    8. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tao Chen & Baohong Sun & Vishal Singh, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Dynamic Effect of Marlboro's Permanent Pricing Shift," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 740-758, 07-08.
    10. Christelis, Dimitris & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2011. "Smoking persistence across countries: A panel data analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1077-1093.
    11. K. Rebecca Scott, 2012. "Rational Habits and Uncertain Prices: Simulating Gasoline Consumption Behavior," Economics Series Working Papers 596, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Sophie Massin, 2011. "La notion d'addiction en économie : La théorie du choix rationnel à l'épreuve," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 121(5), pages 713-750.
    13. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand," CUDARE Working Papers 121931, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    14. Pearl Bader & David Boisclair & Roberta Ferrence, 2011. "Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, October.
    15. Khayyat, Nabaz T. & Heshmati, Almas, 2014. "Production Risk, Energy Use Efficiency and Productivity of Korean Industries," IZA Discussion Papers 8081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Elie Appelbaum & Aman Ullah, 1997. "Estimation Of Moments And Production Decisions Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 631-637, November.
    17. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    18. Christelis, Dimitris & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2009. "Smoking Persistence Across Countries: An Analysis Using Semi-Parametric Dynamic Panel Data Models with Selectivity," IZA Discussion Papers 4336, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Chen, Yu-Fu & Petrie, Dennis, 2012. "When to Quit Under Uncertainty? A real options approach to smoking cessation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-79, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    20. Ciliberto Federico & Kuminoff Nicolai V, 2010. "Public Policy and Market Competition: How the Master Settlement Agreement Changed the Cigarette Industry," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-46, July.
    21. Anton Miglo, 2021. "STO vs. ICO: A Theory of Token Issues under Moral Hazard and Demand Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-35, May.
    22. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL & Toshiyuki Matsuura & Taiyo Yoshimi, 2024. "Export Dynamics and Invoicing Currency," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2024-005, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    23. Dimitris Christelis & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, 2009. "Smoking Persistence in Europe: A Semi-Parametric Panel Data Analysis with Selectivity," Working Papers 403, Barcelona School of Economics.
    24. Somya Arora, 2022. "Why Are Downward-Sloping Demand Curves Unrealistic? A Critical Review of Factors Influencing Demand in More Realistic Scenario-II," Journal of Studies in Dynamics and Change (JSDC), ISSN: 2348-7038, Voices of Inclusive Change and Expressions- (VOICE) Trust, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, January-M.
    25. Yu Na Lee, 2021. "Does Aversion to Price Risk Drive Migration? Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1268-1293, August.

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    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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