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Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil

Author

Listed:
  • Knut Are Aastveit
  • Jamie L. Cross
  • Herman K. van Dijk
Abstract
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter-dependencies among models. To illustrate the usefulness of the method, we present an extensive set of empirical results about time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974–2018. We show that the combination approach systematically outperforms commonly used benchmark models and combination approaches, both in terms of point and density forecasts. The dynamic patterns of the estimated individual model weights are highly time-varying, reflecting a large time variation in the relative performance of the various individual models. The combination approach has built-in diagnostic information measures about forecast inaccuracy and/or model set incompleteness, which provide clear signals of model incompleteness during three crisis periods. To highlight that our approach also can be useful for policy analysis, we present a basic analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie L. Cross & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 523-537, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:41:y:2023:i:2:p:523-537
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2039159
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    2. van Dijk Herman K., 2024. "Challenges and Opportunities for Twenty First Century Bayesian Econometricians: A Personal View," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(2), pages 155-176, April.
    3. Tony Chernis & Gary Koop & Emily Tallman & Mike West, 2024. "Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-30, Bank of Canada.
    4. Abdullah S. Al-Jawarneh & Ahmed R. M. Alsayed & Heba N. Ayyoub & Mohd Tahir Ismail & Siok Kun Sek & Kivanç Halil Ariç & Giancarlo Manzi, 2024. "Enhancing Model Selection by Obtaining Optimal Tuning Parameters in Elastic-Net Quantile Regression, Application to Crude Oil Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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