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Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview

Author

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  • Lucio Sarno

    (University of Warwick, IMF and CEPR, London)

Abstract
This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange rates help resolve the “purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzles”. The second question is whether recently developed nonlinear, regime-switching vector equilibrium correction models of the nominal exchange rate can beat a random walk model, the standard benchmark in the exchange rate literature, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Finally, issues related to the adequateness of standard methods of evaluation of (linear and nonlinear) exchange rate models are discussed with reference to different forecast accuracy criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 93(4), pages 3-46, July-Augu.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:93:y:2003:i:4:p:3-46
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    4. Chaubal Aditi, 2020. "Exchange rates in India: current account monetarism in a nonlinear context," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-27, December.
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    6. Aleš Bulíø, 2005. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 206-231, May.
    7. Cem Payaslioglu, 2008. "Revisiting East Asian exchange rates: the same spirit under a different sky," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1263-1276.
    8. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    9. Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear Analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 14, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    10. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    11. Ales Bulir, 2003. "Some Exchange Rates Are More Stable than Others: Short-Run Evidence from Transition Countries," Working Papers 2003/05, Czech National Bank.
    12. Lo Ming Chien, 2008. "Nonlinear PPP Deviations: A Monte Carlo Investigation of Their Unconditional Half-Life," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-31, December.
    13. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.

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