[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v10y2018i1p33-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro-Economy of Developed and Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Seabelo T Nyawo
  • Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on Indian macroeconomic variables with a number of Structural VARs. This study models the economic policy uncertainty index as constructed by Baker et al. (2013). The study also uses a set of macroeconomic variables for India such as inflation, industrial production and nominal interest rate. The objective of the study is to identify the potential impacts of economic policy uncertainty shocks from the US economy to the Indian economy. According to the SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to the US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant decline in the Indian industrial production of -0.294% and in the Indian inflation of -0.032%. India shows to be resistant to US policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the study finds that the contribution of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Indian macroeconomic variables is shown to be significantly larger than the one exerted by the Indian uncertainty shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Seabelo T Nyawo & Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk, 2018. "The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro-Economy of Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(1), pages 33-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:33-41
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v10i1(J).2086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2086/1579
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2086
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v10i1(J).2086?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    3. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001. "Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 958-992, October.
    4. Bansal, Ravi & Khatchatrian, Varoujan & Yaron, Amir, 2005. "Interpretable asset markets?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 531-560, April.
    5. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    6. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    7. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    8. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    9. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    10. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2009. "Uncertain Times, uncertain measures," Working Papers tecipa-352, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    12. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    13. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    14. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2008. "Should the Euro Area Be Run as a Closed Economy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 138-145, May.
    16. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    18. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    19. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    20. Knut Are Aastveit & Gisle James Natvik & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Working Paper 2013/17, Norges Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Mandaci, Pinar Evrim, 2023. "Time and frequency connectedness of uncertainties in cryptocurrency, stock, currency, energy, and precious metals markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Azasakhe Nkcubeko Nomsobo & Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk, 2018. "The Impact of Short- Term Interest Rates on Bank Funding Costs," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(3), pages 141-148.
    3. Qamruzzaman, Md & Karim, Salma & Jahan, Ishrat, 2022. "Nexus between economic policy uncertainty, foreign direct investment, government debt and renewable energy consumption in 13 top oil importing nations: Evidence from the symmetric and asymmetric inves," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 121-136.
    4. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Ali Kemal ÇELİK, 2021. "The Impact of Global Uncertainties on Economic Growth: Evidence from the US Economy (1996: Q1-2018: Q4)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-54, June.
    5. Yongliang Zhang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim & Ishrat Jahan, 2021. "Nexus between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC Nations: The Mediating Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.
    6. Shuhua Xu & Md. Qamruzzaman & Anass Hamadelneel Adow, 2021. "Is Financial Innovation Bestowed or a Curse for Economic Sustainably: The Mediating Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Muhammet DAŞTAN, 2020. "Effects of Global Economic, Political and Geopolitical Uncertainties on the Turkish Economy: A SVAR Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 97-116, March.
    8. Katleho Makatjane & Roscoe van Wyk, 2020. "Identifying structural changes in the exchange rates of South Africa as a regime-switching process," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-162, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The impact of US uncertainty on the Euro area in good and bad times: evidence from a quantile structural vector autoregressive model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 353-368, May.
    4. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Liyan Han & Mengchao Qi & Libo Yin, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4907-4921, November.
    6. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    7. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    8. Silvia Delrio, 2016. "Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies," Working Papers 2016:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    9. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 159-181, Springer.
    11. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-002 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
    13. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Netšunajev, Aleksei & Glass, Katharina, 2017. "Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 48-62.
    15. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    16. Basile, Roberto & Girardi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 235-250, Enero.
    17. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    18. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    19. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2017. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 347-368, April.
    20. Kundu, Srikanta & Paul, Amartya, 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market return and volatility under heterogeneous market characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 597-612.
    21. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:33-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.