[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ortrsc/v46y2012i2p170-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Embedding Risk Attitudes in a Scheduling Model: Application to the Study of Commuting Departure Time

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Li

    (Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), Business School, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia)

  • Alejandro Tirachini

    (Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), Business School, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia)

  • David A. Hensher

    (Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), Business School, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia)

Abstract
In traditional travel time reliability valuation studies, the value of travel time savings and the value of travel time reliability (or reduced time variability) are estimated within a linear utility functional form, which assumes risk-neutral attitudes for decision makers. In this paper, we develop nonlinear scheduling models to address both risk attitude and preference in the context of a stated choice experiment of car commuters facing risky choices where the risk is associated with the trip time. We also investigate unobserved between-individual heterogeneity in time-related parameters and risk attitudes using a mixed multinomial logit model. The willingness-to-pay values for reducing the mean travel time and variability (earlier/later than the preferred arrival time) are also estimated within the nonlinear scheduling framework. The model is then used to estimate preferred departure times for commuters, assuming that random link capacities are the source of travel time variability. Results show that the more variable travel times are, the earlier commuters depart and that the nonlinear scheduling model predicts earlier optimal departure times than the linear scheduling model does. The application in this paper helps to bridge the gap between theory and practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Li & Alejandro Tirachini & David A. Hensher, 2012. "Embedding Risk Attitudes in a Scheduling Model: Application to the Study of Commuting Departure Time," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 170-188, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:46:y:2012:i:2:p:170-188
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.1110.0389
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.1110.0389
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/trsc.1110.0389?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hollander, Yaron, 2006. "Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 699-711, November.
    2. Hensher, David A. & Greene, William H. & Li, Zheng, 2011. "Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 954-972, August.
    3. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2010. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-603, April.
    4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    5. Masiero, Lorenzo & Hensher, David A., 2010. "Analyzing loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in a freight transport stated choice experiment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 349-358, June.
    6. Schwanen, Tim & Ettema, Dick, 2009. "Coping with unreliable transportation when collecting children: Examining parents' behavior with cumulative prospect theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 511-525, June.
    7. David A. Hensher, 2008. "Joint Estimation of Process and Outcome in Choice Experiments and Implications for Willingness to Pay," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 42(2), pages 297-322, May.
    8. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
    9. Chen, Anthony & Yang, Hai & Lo, Hong K. & Tang, Wilson H., 2002. "Capacity reliability of a road network: an assessment methodology and numerical results," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 225-252, March.
    10. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
    11. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    12. David Dickinson, 2009. "The Effects of Beliefs Versus Risk Attitude on Bargaining Outcomes," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 69-101, January.
    13. Peter P. Wakker, 2008. "Explaining the characteristics of the power (CRRA) utility family," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(12), pages 1329-1344.
    14. Hess, Stephane & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2008. "Asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay estimates in discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 847-863, September.
    15. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-260, May.
    16. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
    17. Peter P. Wakker, 2008. "Explaining the characteristics of the power (CRRA) utility family," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(12), pages 1329-1344, December.
    18. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    19. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    20. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    21. Batley, Richard, 2007. "Marginal valuations of travel time and scheduling, and the reliability premium," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 387-408, July.
    22. Lo, Hong K. & Tung, Yeou-Koung, 2003. "Network with degradable links: capacity analysis and design," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 345-363, May.
    23. Bates, John & Polak, John & Jones, Peter & Cook, Andrew, 0. "The valuation of reliability for personal travel," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 191-229, April.
    24. W. Burke Jackson & James V. Jucker, 1982. "An Empirical Study of Travel Time Variability and Travel Choice Behavior," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 460-475, November.
    25. David Hensher & John Rose & Zheng Li, 2012. "Does the choice model method and/or the data matter?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 351-385, March.
    26. David A. Hensher, 2001. "Measurement of the Valuation of Travel Time Savings," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 35(1), pages 71-98, January.
    27. Asensio, Javier & Matas, Anna, 2008. "Commuters' valuation of travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1074-1085, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Zheng, 2018. "Unobserved and observed heterogeneity in risk attitudes: Implications for valuing travel time savings and travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 12-18.
    2. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    3. Rey, David & Dixit, Vinayak V. & Ygnace, Jean-Luc & Waller, S. Travis, 2016. "An endogenous lottery-based incentive mechanism to promote off-peak usage in congested transit systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 46-55.
    4. Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2016. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 120-131, February.
    5. Zheng Li, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Socioeconomic Differences in Risk‐Taking and Risk Premiums," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 140-152, June.
    6. Geng, Kexin & Wang, Yacan & Cherchi, Elisabetta & Guarda, Pablo, 2023. "Commuter departure time choice behavior under congestion charge: Analysis based on cumulative prospect theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    8. Zheng Li & Jingjing Zeng, 2023. "Increasing relative risk taking in a choice context with source-dependent travel time risks," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2441-2460, December.
    9. Wang, Qian & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "Scheduling choices under rank dependent utility maximization," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:16, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    10. Knut Haase & Mathias Kasper & Matthes Koch & Sven Müller, 2019. "A Pilgrim Scheduling Approach to Increase Safety During the Hajj," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 376-406, March.
    11. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A., 2012. "Estimating values of travel time savings for toll roads: Avoiding a common error," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 60-66.
    12. Quy Nguyen-Phuoc, Duy & An Ngoc Nguyen, Nguyen & Nguyen, Minh Hieu & Ngoc Thi Nguyen, Ly & Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar, 2022. "Factors influencing road safety compliance among food delivery riders: An extension of the job demands-resources (JD-R) model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 541-556.
    13. Soora Rasouli & Harry Timmermans, 2017. "Specification of regret-based models of choice behaviour: formal analyses and experimental design based evidence," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1555-1576, November.
    14. Canales, Elizabeth & Bergtold, Jason S. & Williams, Jeffery & Peterson, Jeffrey, 2015. "Estimating farmers’ risk attitudes and risk premiums for the adoption of conservation practices under different contractual arrangements: A stated choice experiment," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205640, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2016. "Impact of information on risk attitudes: Implications on valuation of reliability and information," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 16-34.
    16. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    17. Elizabeth Canales & Jason S. Bergtold & Jeffery R. Williams, 2024. "Conservation intensification under risk: An assessment of adoption, additionality, and farmer preferences," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(1), pages 45-75, January.
    18. Yi-Shih Chung & Szu-Yu Tu, 2021. "Tri-reference-point hypothesis development for airport ground access behaviors," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2159-2185, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dixit, Vinayak V. & Harb, Rami C. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2015. "Measuring risk aversion to guide transportation policy: Contexts, incentives, and respondents," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 15-34.
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Hensher, David A. & Greene, William H. & Li, Zheng, 2011. "Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 954-972, August.
    4. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    5. Nicolas Coulombel & André de Palma, 2014. "The marginal social cost of travel time variability," Post-Print hal-01100105, HAL.
    6. Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2016. "Impact of information on risk attitudes: Implications on valuation of reliability and information," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 16-34.
    7. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    8. Fu, Jianhua & Zhang, Yongqing, 2020. "Valuation of travel time reliability: Considering the traveler's adaptive expectation with an indifference band on daily trip duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 337-353.
    9. Zheng Li & David Hensher, 2013. "Behavioural implications of preferences, risk attitudes and beliefs in modelling risky travel choice with travel time variability," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 505-523, May.
    10. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    11. Wang, Qian & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "Scheduling choices under rank dependent utility maximization," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:16, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    12. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    13. Mickaël Beaud & Thierry Blayac & Maïté Stéphan, 2014. "Measurements and properties of the values of time and reliability," Working Papers 14-06, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jul 2014.
    14. Koster, Paul & Kroes, Eric & Verhoef, Erik, 2011. "Travel time variability and airport accessibility," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1545-1559.
    15. Teppei Kato & Kenetsu Uchida & William H. K. Lam & Agachai Sumalee, 2021. "Estimation of the value of travel time and of travel time reliability for heterogeneous drivers in a road network," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1639-1670, August.
    16. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2011. "On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 171-184, March.
    17. Stefanie Peer & Erik Verhoef & Jasper Knockaert & Paul Koster & Yin-Yen Tseng, 2011. "Long-Run vs. Short-Run Perspectives on Consumer Scheduling: Evidence from a Revealed-Preference Experiment among Peak-Hour Road Commuters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-181/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 25 Aug 2014.
    18. Li, Baibing, 2019. "Measuring travel time reliability and risk: A nonparametric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 152-171.
    19. Xiao, Yu & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2015. "On the cost of misperceived travel time variability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 96-112.
    20. Kenneth Small, 2015. "The Bottleneck Model: An Assessment and Interpretation," Working Papers 141506, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:46:y:2012:i:2:p:170-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.