[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v152y2021icp180-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Port adaptation to climate change and capacity investments under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Xia, Wenyi
  • Lindsey, Robin
Abstract
Seaports are crucial linkages in supply chains and account for over 80% of global trade by volume and 70% by value. They are also vulnerable to extreme weather events and sea level rise driven by climate change. Choosing the timing and scale of adaptation measures is challenging due to uncertainty about the rate of climate change, the frequency of disasters, and the irreversibility of investment in physical infrastructure. In addition to adaptation to climate change, ports must invest in throughput capacity to accommodate rising traffic volumes, reduce congestion, and maintain their long-term competitiveness. Ports also face uncertainty about shipping demand, which fluctuates with the business cycle, trade relations between countries, and other events. With this as background, we investigate the optimal timing and amount of port protection and capacity investments, as well as port charges, given uncertainty about climate-change-related threats and demand. The port gains better information over time, and thus has an option value to waiting. We show that the port charge is a decreasing function of capacity and an increasing function of protection. Capacity and protection are supermodular: a higher capacity warrants more protection, and better protection justifies higher capacity. If the disaster frequency rises, the port reduces its capacity and traffic volume but may increase or decrease protection investment. It prefers to postpone capacity investment if the disaster frequency can fall, but prefers to invest in advance if the climate is likely to get worse. It prefers to postpone protection investment if the disaster frequency changes a lot, or if the disaster frequency is currently low. The port also holds back on capacity and protection if future demand is highly uncertain. The results are largely the same for a landlord port, a service port, and a fully privatized port.

Suggested Citation

  • Xia, Wenyi & Lindsey, Robin, 2021. "Port adaptation to climate change and capacity investments under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 180-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:152:y:2021:i:c:p:180-204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2021.08.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261521001600
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2021.08.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    2. De Borger, B. & Dunkerley, F. & Proost, S., 2007. "Strategic investment and pricing decisions in a congested transport corridor," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-316, September.
    3. Dixit, Avinash, 1995. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and scale economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 327-350.
    4. De Borger, Bruno & Van Dender, Kurt, 2006. "Prices, capacities and service levels in a congestible Bertrand duopoly," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 264-283, September.
    5. Melissa Nursey-Bray & Boyd Blackwell & Ben Brooks & Marnie L. Campbell & Laurie Goldsworthy & Hilary Pateman & Ian Rodrigues & Melanie Roome & Jeffrey T. Wright & John Francis & Chad L. Hewitt, 2013. "Vulnerabilities and adaptation of ports to climate change," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(7), pages 1021-1045, September.
    6. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    7. Xiao, Yibin & Fu, Xiaowen & Zhang, Anming, 2013. "Demand uncertainty and airport capacity choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 91-104.
    8. Trujillo, Lourdes & Nombela, Gustavo, 1999. "Privatization and regulation of the seaport industry," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2181, The World Bank.
    9. Bruno De Borger & Stef Proost & Kurt Van Dender, 2008. "Private Port Pricing and Public Investment in Port and Hinterland Capacity," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 42(3), pages 527-561, September.
    10. Asadabadi, Ali & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2018. "Co-opetition in enhancing global port network resiliency: A multi-leader, common-follower game theoretic approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 281-298.
    11. Balliauw, Matteo & Kort, Peter M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Capacity investment decisions of two competing ports under uncertainty: A strategic real options approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 249-264.
    12. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    13. Xiao, Yi-bin & Fu, Xiaowen & Ng, Adolf K.Y. & Zhang, Anming, 2015. "Port investments on coastal and marine disasters prevention: Economic modeling and implications," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-221.
    14. Robert Novy-Marx, 2007. "An Equilibrium Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1461-1502, 2007 29.
    15. Jasmine Siu Lee Lam & Jonatan A. Lassa, 2017. "Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 1-15, January.
    16. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    17. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    18. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    19. Basso, Leonardo J. & Zhang, Anming, 2007. "Congestible facility rivalry in vertical structures," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 218-237, March.
    20. Wang, Kun & Zhang, Anming, 2018. "Climate change, natural disasters and adaptation investments: Inter- and intra-port competition and cooperation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PA), pages 158-189.
    21. Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1998. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 627-644, April.
    22. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2003. "Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1239-1272.
    23. Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Yimin, 2006. "Airport capacity and congestion when carriers have market power," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 229-247, September.
    24. Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1999. "Modelling the price of industrial commodities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 331-353, August.
    25. Chen, Hsiao-Chi & Liu, Shi-Miin, 2016. "Should ports expand their facilities under congestion and uncertainty?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 109-131.
    26. Randrianarisoa, Laingo M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change effects and competition between ports: Invest now or later?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 279-322.
    27. Verhoef, Erik T. & Silva, Hugo E., 2017. "Dynamic equilibrium at a congestible facility under market power," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 174-192.
    28. Aris Christodoulou & Panayotis Christidis & Hande Demirel, 2019. "Sea-level rise in ports: a wider focus on impacts," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(4), pages 482-496, December.
    29. Tongzon, Jose L., 2009. "Port choice and freight forwarders," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 186-195, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Wagner & Izabela Kotowska & Michał Pluciński, 2022. "The Impact of Improving the Quality of the Port’s Infrastructure on the Shippers’ Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Wang, Bi & Chin, Kwai Sang & Su, Qin, 2022. "Prevention and adaptation to diversified risks in the seaport–dry port system under asymmetric risk behaviors: Invest earlier or wait?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 11-36.
    3. Yang, Rui-feng & Hu, Rong & Xiao, Yi-bin & Deng, Xia & Wang, Kun, 2022. "Seaport's investment under disaster information asymmetry between public and private operators," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 89-112.
    4. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Chan, Felix T.S. & Fu, Xiaowen & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2022. "Subsidy on transport adaptation investment-modeling decisions under incomplete information and ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-129.
    5. Vicent Esteban Chapapría & José Serra Peris, 2021. "Vulnerability of Coastal Areas Due to Infrastructure: The Case of Valencia Port (Spain)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Fu, Xiaowen & Zhang, Anming & Ge, Ying-En, 2022. "The effects of information publicity and government subsidy on port climate change adaptation: Strategy and social welfare analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 284-312.
    7. Zheng, Shiyuan & Jia, Rongwen & Shang, Wen-Long & Fu, Xiaowen & Wang, Kun, 2023. "Promote transport facility Resilience: Persuasion or Subsidy?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    8. Itoh, Ryo & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "How should ports share risk of natural and climate change disasters? Analytical modelling and implications for adaptation investments," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Randrianarisoa, Laingo M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change effects and competition between ports: Invest now or later?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 279-322.
    2. Balliauw, Matteo & Kort, Peter M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Capacity investment decisions of two competing ports under uncertainty: A strategic real options approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 249-264.
    3. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Chan, Felix T.S. & Fu, Xiaowen & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2022. "Subsidy on transport adaptation investment-modeling decisions under incomplete information and ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-129.
    4. Balliauw, Matteo, 2021. "Time to build: A real options analysis of port capacity expansion investments under uncertainty," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Wang, Kun & Zhang, Anming, 2018. "Climate change, natural disasters and adaptation investments: Inter- and intra-port competition and cooperation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PA), pages 158-189.
    6. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Li, Zhi-Chun & Fu, Xiaowen & Chan, Felix T.S., 2021. "Subsidy or minimum requirement? Regulation of port adaptation investment under disaster ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 457-481.
    8. Zheng, Shiyuan & Fu, Xiaowen & Jiang, Changmin & Ge, Ying-En, 2020. "Airline investments in exclusive airport facilities: Timing decisions under demand ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 343-363.
    9. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    10. Zheng, Shiyuan & Fu, Xiaowen & Wang, Kun & Li, Hongchang, 2021. "Seaport adaptation to climate change disasters: Subsidy policy vs. adaptation sharing under minimum requirement," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    11. Itoh, Ryo & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "How should ports share risk of natural and climate change disasters? Analytical modelling and implications for adaptation investments," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    12. Wang, Bi & Chin, Kwai Sang & Su, Qin, 2022. "Prevention and adaptation to diversified risks in the seaport–dry port system under asymmetric risk behaviors: Invest earlier or wait?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 11-36.
    13. Balliauw, Matteo & Onghena, Evy, 2020. "Expanding airport capacity of cities under uncertainty: Strategies to mitigate congestion," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Xiao, Yi-bin & Fu, Xiaowen & Oum, Tae H. & Yan, Jia, 2017. "Modeling airport capacity choice with real options," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 93-114.
    15. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    16. Zheng, Shiyuan & Jiang, Changmin & Fu, Xiaowen, 2021. "Investment competition on dedicated terminals under demand ambiguity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Panahi, Roozbeh & Ng, Adolf K.Y. & Pang, Jiayi, 2020. "Climate change adaptation in the port industry: A complex of lingering research gaps and uncertainties," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 10-29.
    18. Sheng, Dian & Li, Zhi-Chun & Fu, Xiaowen & Gillen, David, 2017. "Modeling the effects of unilateral and uniform emission regulations under shipping company and port competition," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 99-114.
    19. Wan, Yulai & Basso, Leonardo J. & Zhang, Anming, 2016. "Strategic investments in accessibility under port competition and inter-regional coordination," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 102-125.
    20. Li, Shuai & Cai, Hubo, 2017. "Government incentive impacts on private investment behaviors under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 115-129.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:152:y:2021:i:c:p:180-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.