[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v34y2015icp17-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification

Author

Listed:
  • Orlov, Vitaly
  • Äijö, Janne
Abstract
This study investigates carry trade diversification opportunities and linkages of major carry trade currencies on five different investment horizons. Using daily data on eight currencies and LIBOR rates, we examine the temporal structure of correlations and assess portfolio diversification benefits with wavelet techniques. Our results indicate that positive and economically significant carry trade excess returns are observed on all investigated investment horizons. We document that strategies built on the basis of wavelet correlation lead to significant diversification benefits. These findings indicate the importance of the dynamic structure of exchange rate correlations to currency arbitrage strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlov, Vitaly & Äijö, Janne, 2015. "Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:17-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531914000610
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.11.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 511-535, December.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty‐De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, February.
    5. Darvas, Zsolt, 2009. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 944-957, May.
    6. Jarno Kiviaho & Jussi Nikkinen & Vanja Piljak & Timo Rothovius, 2014. "The Co†movement Dynamics of European Frontier Stock Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 574-595, June.
    7. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    8. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Houmann Frederiksen, 2005. "Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 405-443.
    9. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
    10. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    11. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-636, September.
    12. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    13. Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
    14. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "Carry Trade: The Gains of Diversification," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 581-588, 04-05.
    15. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    16. Mintao Fan & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "Customer trades and extreme events in foreign exchange," Chapters, in: Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-472, June.
    18. Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 249-266.
    19. Alain P. Chaboud & Joseph E. Gagnon, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    21. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Nekhili, Ramzi & Altay-Salih, Aslihan & Gençay, Ramazan, 2002. "Exploring exchange rate returns at different time horizons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 671-682.
    23. Michael Graham & Jussi Nikkinen, 2011. "Co-movement of the Finnish and international stock markets: a wavelet analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5-6), pages 409-425.
    24. Clarida, Richard & Davis, Josh & Pedersen, Niels, 2009. "Currency carry trade regimes: Beyond the Fama regression," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1375-1389, December.
    25. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
    26. Gabriele Galati & Alexandra Heath & Patrick McGuire, 2007. "Evidence of carry trade activity," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    27. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
    29. John Elder & Hyun J. Jin, 2007. "Long memory in commodity futures volatility: A wavelet perspective," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 411-437, May.
    30. Baillie, Richard T. & Chang, Sanders S., 2011. "Carry trades, momentum trading and the forward premium anomaly," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 441-464, August.
    31. Loh, Lixia, 2013. "Co-movement of Asia-Pacific with European and US stock market returns: A cross-time-frequency analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-13.
    32. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    33. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Forecasting Currency Excess Returns: Can the Forward Bias Be Exploited?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 963-990, December.
    34. Paul Mizen (ed.), 2003. "Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2818.
    35. Graham, Michael & Kiviaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi, 2012. "Integration of 22 emerging stock markets: A three-dimensional analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 34-47.
    36. Doukas, John A. & Zhang, Hao, 2013. "The performance of NDF carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-190.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Demirer, Riza & Yuksel, Asli & Yuksel, Aydin, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Ivanov, Ivan & Kabaivanov, Stanimir & Bogdanova, Boryana, 2016. "Stock market recovery from the 2008 financial crisis: The differences across Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 360-374.
    3. Jouida, Sameh & Bouzgarrou, Houssam & Hellara, Slaheddine, 2017. "The effects of activity and geographic diversification on performance: Evidence from French financial institutions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 920-939.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    2. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
    3. Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. Mulder, Arjen & Tims, Ben, 2018. "Conditioning carry trades: Less risk, more return," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Ali Shehadeh & Peter Erdos & Youwei Li & Michael Moore, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of "Cheap Money"," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 374-404, October.
    6. Dr. Matthias Gubler, 2014. "Carry Trade Activities: A Multivariate Threshold Model Analysis," Working Papers 2014-06, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Conditionally-hedged currency carry trades," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    9. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
    10. Wenliang Guo, 2020. "Currency Regimes, Volatility Risks, and Carry Trades: The Option Value of Government Currency Intervention in Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-4.
    11. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
    12. Rosen Valchev, 2015. "Exchange Rates and UIP Violations at Short and Long Horizons," 2015 Meeting Papers 1446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Craig Burnside, 2011. "Carry Trades and Risk," NBER Working Papers 17278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    16. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
    17. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2021. "A filtered currency carry trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Tarek A Hassan & Rui C Mano, 2019. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 397-450.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Auer, Benjamin R. & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2016. "Do carry trade returns show signs of long memory?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 201-208.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry trade; Wavelet analysis; Carry trade diversification; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:17-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.