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Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Einsichten und Handlungsempfehlungen aus der Evaluationsforschung

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Arni
  • Werner Eichhorst
  • Nico Pestel
  • Alexander Spermann
  • Klaus F. Zimmermann
Abstract
A legal minimum wage of 8.50 € per hour will be introduced in Germany as of January 1, 2015. This paper summarizes and evaluates national and international research findings about minimum wages. Using the IZA micro-simulation model, it also simulates employment and distributional effects as well as fiscal effects of the reform and compares them with other studies. Whereas employment losses cannot be excluded and poverty reductions seem not to be likely, the evidence is not strong enough to make clear-cut predictions for Germany. Therefore, the study argues for a systematic and independent scientific evaluation of the newly introduced legal minimum wage in Germany. This could provide policymakers and voters with solid empirical evidence, and offer them a fair chance to suggest modifications through the electoral process. / Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Höhe von 8,50 Euro je Stunde wird zum 1. Januar 2015 in Deutschland eingeführt. Dieser Beitrag fasst die vorliegenden nationalen und internationalen Erfahrungen mit Mindestlöhnen zusammen. Dabei werden die Beschäftigungs- und Verteilungswirkungen sowie die fiskalischen Effekte mit Hilfe des IZA-Mikrosimulationsmodells abgeschätzt und mit Ergebnissen aus aktuellen Studien verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Ergebnisse aus der Analyse von Branchenmindestlöhnen und aus Mikrosimulationen trotz aufgezeigter Problempotenziale keine abschließende Beurteilung erlauben. Deshalb plädieren die Autoren für eine systematische und unabhängige wissenschaftliche Begleitforschung und Evaluation des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns. Dies lässt Politik und Wählern eine faire Option für eine Kurskorrektur.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Arni & Werner Eichhorst & Nico Pestel & Alexander Spermann & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2014. "Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Einsichten und Handlungsempfehlungen aus der Evaluationsforschung," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 134(2), pages 149-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqsjb:v134_y2014_i2_q2_p149-182
    DOI: 10.3790/schm.134.1.149
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Popp, 2023. "How elastic is labor demand? A meta-analysis for the German labor market," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Mario Bossler, 2017. "Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 327-348, September.
    3. Koch, Andreas & Kirchmann, Andrea & Reiner, Marcel & Scheu, Tobias & Boockmann, Bernhard & Bonin, Holger, 2018. "Verhaltensmuster von Betrieben und Beschäftigten im Zuge der Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns," IZA Research Reports 84, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Arne Heise, 2019. "The resilience of modern neoclassical economics – a case study in the light of Ludwik Fleck’s ‘harmony of deception’," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Löffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2014. "Documentation IZA?MOD v3.0: The IZA Policy Simulation Model," IZA Discussion Papers 8553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Philip Jung & Anke Hassel & Robert Habeck & Matthias Knuth & Alexander Spermann & Hans Peter Grüner & Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl, 2019. "Reformvorschläge für den Arbeitsmarkt: Ist Hartz IV noch zukunftsfähig?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(06), pages 03-25, March.
    7. Garloff, Alfred, 2016. "Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment : first evidence from regional data," IAB-Discussion Paper 201631, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Spermann, Alexander, 2022. "Aktuelle Mikrosimulationsstudien zur Einführung eines partiellen bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens in Deutschland: Eine kritische Analyse," FRIBIS Discussion Paper Series 01-2022, University of Freiburg, Freiburg Institute for Basic Income Studies (FRIBIS).
    9. Burauel Patrick & Caliendo Marco & Grabka Markus M. & Obst Cosima & Preuss Malte & Schröder Carsten, 2020. "The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Working Hours," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 233-267, April.
    10. Pestel, Nico & Bonin, Holger & Isphording, Ingo E. & Gregory, Terry & Caliendo, Marco, 2020. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit," IZA Research Reports 95, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Arne Heise, 2022. "Mindestlöhne, Beschäftigung und die „Harmonie der Täuschungen“," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 48(1), pages 83-107.
    12. Mario Bossler & Martin Popp, 2022. "Labor Demand on a Tight Leash," Papers 2203.05593, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    13. Schmitz, Sebastian, 2017. "The effects of Germany's new minimum wage on employment and welfare dependency," Discussion Papers 2017/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    14. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516, February.
    15. Alfred Garloff, 2019. "Did the German Minimum Wage Reform Influence (Un)employment Growth in 2015? Evidence from Regional Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(3), pages 356-381, August.
    16. Dütsch Matthias & Himmelreicher Ralf & Pfeifer Christian & Wunsch Conny, 2020. "Editorial: Effects of the Introduction of the Statutory Minimum Wage in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 155-160, April.
    17. Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Andreas Peichl, 2020. "The ifo Tax and Transfer Behavioral Microsimulation Model," ifo Working Paper Series 335, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    18. Bossler, Mario & Popp, Martin, 2024. "Labor Demand on a Tight Leash," IZA Discussion Papers 16837, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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