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Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies

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  • David Coleman
Abstract
The uneven timing of the demographic transition in different countries of the world will lead to divergence between countries in ethnic and religious homogeneity. Developed‐country populations that began their fertility transitions relatively early are becoming increasingly diverse with respect to the ethnic origin and religion of their inhabitants, primarily as a result of high recent levels of immigration. Many demographic patterns of the developed world, such as low death and birth rates, are becoming universal. It might be expected that less developed countries will also turn from emigration to experiencing immigration, as their populations age and their economies develop. This essay suggests, however, that future ethnic diversity arising from immigration may be less marked in many of those developing countries than in the West, especially among latecomers to the fertility transition. Five reasons are advanced as impediments to the globalization of ethnic heterogeneity arising from immigration: demographic, economic, political, and factors related to resource constraints, and climate change. The essay considers what social, economic, and political consequences might arise if high levels of ethnic diversity, and possibly ethnic replacement, remained an idiosyncratic peculiarity of today's developed countries, which would therefore diverge in important ways from the rest of the world as the twenty‐first century unfolds.

Suggested Citation

  • David Coleman, 2009. "Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 449-478, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:35:y:2009:i:3:p:449-478
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00293.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Liebig, 2007. "The Labour Market Integration of Immigrants in Denmark," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 50, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Modena & Fabio Sabatini, 2012. "I would if I could: precarious employment and childbearing intentions in Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 77-97, March.
    2. Daniel Lichter, 2013. "Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 359-391, April.
    3. Zhiqiang Feng & Paul Boyle & Maarten Ham & Gillian M. Raab, 2012. "Are Mixed-Ethnic Unions More Likely to Dissolve Than Co-Ethnic Unions? New Evidence from Britain [Les unions mixtes sont-elles plus fragiles que les unions entre partenaires de même origine ethniqu," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(2), pages 159-176, May.
    4. Tarvainen Kyösti, 2018. "Population projections for Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland, 2015–2065," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 39(39), pages 147-160, March.
    5. Philipp Kolo, 2011. "Questioning Ethnic Fragmentation's Exogeneity - Drivers of Changing Ethnic Boundaries," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 210, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Gerda Neyer, 2011. "Should governments in Europe be more aggressive in pushing for gender equality to raise fertility? The second "NO"," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(10), pages 225-250.
    7. Patrice Dion & Éric Caron-Malenfant & Chantal Grondin & Dominic Grenier, 2015. "Long-Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 109-126, March.

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