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Revisiting the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canada's agricultural trade: The surprising case of an agricultural export boom

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  • Richard Barichello
Abstract
In contrast to April 2020 forecasts of the effects of the pandemic on Canada's agricultural trade, we find 1 year later that the recession was deeper, that total trade fell by less than was widely expected, and agricultural trade did not fall but actually increased. This was a general pattern across countries, but Canada's agricultural trade increased by at least 11%, more than the world aggregate and that of the U.S. This was mostly due to the success of crop exports, specifically in oilseeds, lentils, and cereals. Although some of the increase was due to rising commodity prices, for the most part trade volumes also increased substantially. Not only was Canada's export boom not expected but it was also not closely related to the pandemic. It was due to commodity‐specific circumstances, such as China's rebuilding of its depleted hog herd, a short crop of lentils in India, and demand shifts to Canadian wheat, durum and barley. Increased Asian demand helped this export growth, but accounted for less than a third of it. Contrairement aux prévisions d’avril 2020 concernant les effets de la pandémie sur le commerce agricole du Canada, nous constatons un an plus tard que la récession a été plus profonde, que les échanges totaux ont moins diminué que ce qui était généralement prévu et que le commerce agricole n’a pas chuté, mais a plutôt augmenté. Ceci est une tendance générale pour tous les pays, mais le commerce agricole du Canada a augmenté d'au moins 11 pourcents, ce qui représente plus que la moyenne mondiale et la hausse des États‐Unis. Cela a été principalement dû au succès des exportations de grains, en particulier les oléagineux, les lentilles et les céréales. Bien qu'une partie de l'augmentation soit due à la hausse des prix de ces denrées, les volumes des échanges ont, pour la plupart, aussi augmenté considérablement. Non seulement le boom des exportations du Canada n’était pas prévu, mais il n’était pas non plus étroitement lié à la pandémie. Cela est dû à des circonstances propres à chaque produit, telles que la reconstitution par la Chine de son troupeau décimé de porcs, une faible récolte de lentilles en Inde et des déplacements de la demande vers le blé, le blé dur et l'orge canadiens. L'augmentation de la demande asiatique a contribué à cette croissance des exportations, mais en a représenté moins du tiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Barichello, 2021. "Revisiting the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canada's agricultural trade: The surprising case of an agricultural export boom," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 251-260, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:69:y:2021:i:2:p:251-260
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12285
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meyer, Seth, 2021. "2021 Agricultural Outlook," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2021 320970, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    2. Richard Barichello, 2020. "The COVID‐19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 219-224, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan P. Ker & Scott Biden, 2021. "Risk management in Canada's agricultural sector in light of COVID‐19: Considerations one year later," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 299-305, June.
    2. Colin A. Carter & Sandro Steinbach & Xiting Zhuang, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and containerized agricultural exports from California ports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1051-1071, June.
    3. Alan P. Ker & Ryan Cardwell, 2021. "Introduction to the special issue on COVID‐19 and the Canadian agriculture and food sectors: Thoughts one year into the pandemic," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 155-159, June.
    4. Kwame Asiam Addey & William Nganje, 2023. "The role of the U.S. exchange‐rate equity market volatility on agricultural exports and forecasts," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(1), pages 25-47, March.

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