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Wer bezahlt Trumps Handelskrieg mit China?

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek
Abstract
Seit dem 24. September erheben die USA Zölle auf chinesische Produkte im gegenwärtigen Wert von ungefähr 250 Mrd. US-Dollar; das sind 50% der Importe aus China. In der Debatte wird oft davon ausgegangen, dass diese Zölle der amerikanischen Volkswirtschaft schaden. Dies stimmt nicht, weil die Belastung zu etwa drei Viertel auf chinesische Produzenten überwälzt werden kann. Da die US-Behörden gerade jene Produkte verzollen, bei denen die Importelastizität hoch ist, werden die Verbraucherpreise im Durchschnitt über alle betroffenen Produkte in den USA um ca. 4,5% steigen, während die chinesischen Anbieter ihre Exportpreise um durchschnittlich 20,5% absenken. Weil die Verbraucherpreise nur moderat steigen, führen die Zölle zu einer Verringerung der Importe um lediglich 37%; daher geht auch das bilaterale Handelsbilanzdefizit der USA mit China nur um ca. 17% zurück. Die USA generieren Zolleinnahmen von 22,5 Mrd. US-Dollar, aber nicht einmal ein Viertel davon wird von Inländern getragen. Zwar verzerren die Zölle die Konsumentscheidungen der Amerikaner; die Überwälzung führt aber dazu, dass die USA insgesamt einen Nettovorteil von 18,4 Mrd. US-Dollar erzielen.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek, 2018. "Wer bezahlt Trumps Handelskrieg mit China?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(22), pages 30-35, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:22:p:30-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Christian Broda & Nuno Limão & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "Optimal Tariffs and Market Power: The Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 2, pages 13-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Dizioli, Allan Gloe & van Roye, Björn, 2018. "Macroeconomic implications of increasing protectionism," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Jovicic, Sonja, 2019. "Chinas Wirtschaft: Steigende Risiken. Analyse und Simulationsrechnungen," IW-Reports 24/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internationale Handelspolitik; Außenwirtschaftspolitik; Weltwirtschaft; Handels-hemmnissse; Protektionismus; Zollpolitik; USA; WTO;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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