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TTIP und die Entwicklungsländer: Gefahren, Potenziale und Politikoptionen

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Wilhelm Kohler
Abstract
Das Freihandelsabkommen zwischen der EU und den USA, TTIP, wird aufgrund seiner Größe auch Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer betreffen. Diese profitieren zwar, wenn zusätzliches Wachstum in den TTIP-Ländern die Auslandsnachfrage nach ihren Waren erhöht, aber zugleich müssen sie um ihre preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in der EU und den USA fürchten, weil die TTIP-Partner in diesen Ländern dank des Abkommens billiger anbieten können. In einer neuen Studie für das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung hat sich das ifo Institut gemeinsam mit dem Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW) in Tübingen mit der Frage beschäftigt, wie sich diese beiden gegenläufigen Effekte saldieren. Die Ergebnisse sind: (i) pauschale Aussagen sind unmöglich, denn manche Drittstaaten werden wahrscheinlich gewinnen, andere verlieren; (ii) die Verluste sind gemäß mehreren Modellsimulationen nicht bedrohlich; (iii) es gibt eine Reihe von realistischen Möglichkeiten, die TTIP entwicklungsländerfreundlich zu gestalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2015. "TTIP und die Entwicklungsländer: Gefahren, Potenziale und Politikoptionen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:02:p:
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2013. "Neues von der Basarökonomie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(06), pages 17-28, March.
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    7. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler & Rahel Aichele & Günther Klee & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Potential impact of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partner (TTIP) on developing and emerging countries," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 67, September.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; Freihandelszone; Entwicklungsländer; Handelsabkommen; Wirkungsanalyse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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